{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a67efc27-9a4e-413c-9aa9-a47bd276bf64", "symbol": "DBJP", "name": "DBX ETF TRUST XTRACKERS MSCI JAPAN HEDGED EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.582, "architecture_energy": 31.57, "architecture_maturity": 54.341, "architecture_confidence": 86.986, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.54, "rotation_up": 36.09, "upward_expansion": 62.93, "deceleration": 88.21, "rotation_down": 26.05, "downward_expansion": 15.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 113.384427, 113.485144, 111.746917, 109.498435 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 115.5814, "trend_reference": 106.742471, "distance_from_trend": 0.082806, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 77.797001, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.485679, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.302234, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.104209, "excess_performance": -0.021416, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082806, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067221, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.485679, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000873, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.043022, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032167, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.104209, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.851371, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62825, "relative_activity": 0.336815, "balance": 0.851371, "dry_up": 0.561385, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039513, "annualized_volatility": 0.201025, "from_high_reference": -0.026682, "from_low_reference": 0.432584 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 106.742471, "fair_value_reference": 77.797001, "structural_low": 96.204357, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.029839, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.005449, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.075753, "worst_return": -0.02591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.107313, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.001357, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.168731, "worst_return": -0.061597, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.068265, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.044673, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.228762, "worst_return": -0.044149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022972, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007932, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.004619, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074594, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026257, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": 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113.09231, 109.744597, 107.55661 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 111.2097, "volume": 118128, "typical_volume": 188327.2, "trend": 104.97465, "fair_value": 76.662771, "relative_strength": 5.452865, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.429453, "energy": 47.652465, "activity_lines": [ 113.577053, 112.992144, 110.154214, 107.996199 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 113.135, "volume": 87836, "typical_volume": 184991.45, "trend": 105.625969, "fair_value": 77.035462, "relative_strength": 7.492548, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.855717, "energy": 41.441246, "activity_lines": [ 113.201253, 113.187365, 110.726563, 108.522673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 111.36, "volume": 150064, "typical_volume": 187029.9, "trend": 106.19111, "fair_value": 77.405606, "relative_strength": 4.314191, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.633703, "energy": 30.313546, "activity_lines": [ 112.509273, 112.970032, 111.064979, 108.89261 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 115.5814, "volume": 62825, "typical_volume": 186526.5, "trend": 106.742471, "fair_value": 77.797001, "relative_strength": 4.302234, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.58201, "energy": 31.569559, "activity_lines": [ 113.384427, 113.485144, 111.746917, 109.498435 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }