{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a68ab75b-da7e-41cf-9269-53c0dcdf05b5", "symbol": "HQL", "name": "abrdn Life Sciences Investors", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.393, "architecture_energy": 59.621, "architecture_maturity": 74.49, "architecture_confidence": 71.365, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.54, "rotation_up": 57.45, "upward_expansion": 80.17, "deceleration": 70.86, "rotation_down": 22.88, "downward_expansion": 9.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.800667, 19.532, 18.685455, 18.048271 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.62, "trend_reference": 17.279518, "distance_from_trend": 0.19332, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.476629, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.65269, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.040734, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.301864, "excess_performance": 0.176239, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.19332, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066488, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.65269, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146871, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.140407, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043401, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.301864, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.028263, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 717065, "relative_activity": 1.19641, "balance": 1.028263, "dry_up": 1.337918, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050541, "annualized_volatility": 0.252921, "from_high_reference": -0.032833, "from_low_reference": 0.788809 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.279518, "fair_value_reference": 12.476629, "structural_low": 15.166494, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.015353, "positive_rate": 0.68, "directional_follow_through": 0.68, "median_excess_return": 0.002728, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.129617, "worst_return": -0.050115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.013581, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.030174, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.393982, "worst_return": -0.063046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.02718, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.129616, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.371558, "worst_return": -0.076559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.562253, "energy": 87.340115, "activity_lines": [ 19.776, 18.927267, 18.088076, 17.536049 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.25, "volume": 831704, "typical_volume": 569773.1, "trend": 17.007066, "fair_value": 12.340603, "relative_strength": 12.790949, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.977077, "energy": 84.977932, "activity_lines": [ 19.702667, 19.091091, 18.265942, 17.687425 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.1, "volume": 951207, "typical_volume": 585849.2, "trend": 17.119833, "fair_value": 12.40412, "relative_strength": 10.08253, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.641116, "energy": 57.749671, "activity_lines": [ 19.493333, 19.190727, 18.411045, 17.822453 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.62, "volume": 717065, "typical_volume": 599347.4, "trend": 17.279518, "fair_value": 12.476629, "relative_strength": 14.040734, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.392648, "energy": 59.621364, "activity_lines": [ 19.800667, 19.532, 18.685455, 18.048271 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }