{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a68bde5c-0937-4e6e-b991-90b2b5cb4915", "symbol": "600626", "name": "Shanghai Shenda Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.306, "architecture_energy": 38.131, "architecture_maturity": 96.457, "architecture_confidence": 60.904, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.9, "rotation_up": 26.64, "upward_expansion": 17.43, "deceleration": 66.97, "rotation_down": 40.74, "downward_expansion": 67.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.362687, 3.336736, 3.498699, 3.70476 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.44, "trend_reference": 4.053321, "distance_from_trend": -0.151313, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.725062, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.076525, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.833319, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.300813, "excess_performance": -0.257609, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.151313, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106411, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.076525, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158758, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.198333, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05039, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.300813, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.692567, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50172319, "relative_activity": 0.820223, "balance": 0.692567, "dry_up": 0.876173, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084231, "annualized_volatility": 0.295252, "from_high_reference": -0.412969, "from_low_reference": 0.116642 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.053321, "fair_value_reference": 3.725062, "structural_low": 3.080665, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.012727, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.00245, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.317797, "worst_return": -0.121588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.0847, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.066769, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.432056, "worst_return": -0.187741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.156056, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.190633, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.400576, "worst_return": 0.024024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117801, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040346, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058011, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.164524, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.108491, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116424, 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.27, "volume": 57281915, "typical_volume": 62720205.85, "trend": 4.183988, "fair_value": 3.728908, "relative_strength": -21.104225, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.516386, "energy": 68.584086, "activity_lines": [ 3.263414, 3.378353, 3.603742, 3.853661 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.18, "volume": 57010258, "typical_volume": 61334690.6, "trend": 4.134321, "fair_value": 3.72628, "relative_strength": -23.950408, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.760806, "energy": 62.322094, "activity_lines": [ 3.228073, 3.316359, 3.544315, 3.788887 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.49, "volume": 49914584, "typical_volume": 61134967.55, "trend": 4.099655, "fair_value": 3.725831, "relative_strength": -16.679124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.267579, "energy": 50.411497, "activity_lines": [ 3.312705, 3.325457, 3.521507, 3.747318 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.44, "volume": 50172319, "typical_volume": 61169153.45, "trend": 4.053321, "fair_value": 3.725062, "relative_strength": -19.833319, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.306385, "energy": 38.131429, "activity_lines": [ 3.362687, 3.336736, 3.498699, 3.70476 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }