{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a693c087-e545-461d-9d6f-6ce16582e47e", "symbol": "EVE", "name": "EVE Health Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.935, "architecture_energy": 87.259, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.596, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.3, "rotation_up": 10.52, "upward_expansion": 21.72, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 80.82, "downward_expansion": 99.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0164, 0.017636, 0.020667, 0.021495 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.016, "trend_reference": 0.021933, "distance_from_trend": -0.270517, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.034301, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.533545, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.246704, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2, "excess_performance": -0.263706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.270517, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070621, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.533545, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.340538, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.372467, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.413226, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.258167, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1282344, "relative_activity": 0.440896, "balance": 0.258167, "dry_up": 0.469091, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139423, "annualized_volatility": 0.541755, "from_high_reference": -0.555556, "from_low_reference": 0.142857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.021933, "fair_value_reference": 0.034301, "structural_low": 0.014, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.275862, "directional_follow_through": 0.413793, "median_excess_return": -0.039521, "regime_survival": 0.896552, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.138566, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.428574, "worst_return": -0.399994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.066616, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.041667, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.527778, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.539939, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.1, "worst_return": -0.759999, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-07-09", "end": "2021-12-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.199999, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-01-07", "end": "2022-02-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.399998, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-03-04", "end": "2022-11-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.399994, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-12-02", "end": "2022-12-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-12-30", "end": "2023-01-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-02-03", "end": "2023-04-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-04-14", "end": "2023-04-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-05-05", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.425, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.193548, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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"relative_strength": -32.833266, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.841101, "energy": 74.838449, "activity_lines": [ 0.018133, 0.019982, 0.022605, 0.022654 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.017, "volume": 689268, "typical_volume": 2985534.25, "trend": 0.0223, "fair_value": 0.034609, "relative_strength": -31.633938, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.928281, "energy": 85.175414, "activity_lines": [ 0.017467, 0.019145, 0.022005, 0.022299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.016, "volume": 755121, "typical_volume": 2975882.25, "trend": 0.022167, "fair_value": 0.034455, "relative_strength": -36.14297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.456849, "energy": 87.856651, "activity_lines": [ 0.0168, 0.018309, 0.021324, 0.021892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.016, "volume": 1282344, "typical_volume": 2908497.75, "trend": 0.021933, "fair_value": 0.034301, "relative_strength": -37.246704, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.935131, "energy": 87.258947, "activity_lines": [ 0.0164, 0.017636, 0.020667, 0.021495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }