{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6947aba-8a57-4373-98d4-4e018dba1fe6", "symbol": "002490", "name": "Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.829, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.977, "architecture_energy": 21.496, "architecture_maturity": 45.56, "architecture_confidence": 65.678, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.14, "rotation_up": 25.74, "upward_expansion": 14.52, "deceleration": 45.51, "rotation_down": 27.29, "downward_expansion": 59.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.623333, 7.433273, 7.865381, 8.328237 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.77, "trend_reference": 8.672667, "distance_from_trend": -0.104082, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.91, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.582485, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.124976, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.136667, "excess_performance": -0.144066, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104082, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016606, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.582485, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.616889, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03125, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206783, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.638509, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 235580646, "relative_activity": 0.930664, "balance": 0.638509, "dry_up": 1.454049, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15642, "annualized_volatility": 0.925197, "from_high_reference": -0.464876, "from_low_reference": 0.412727 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.672667, "fair_value_reference": 4.91, "structural_low": 6.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.040573, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.03798, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.309434, "worst_return": -0.245847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.103365, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.09825, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.480226, "worst_return": -0.246809, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.129808, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.234919, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.016949, "worst_return": -0.332075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 7.488, 7.371091, 7.936429, 8.383742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.77, "volume": 235580646, "typical_volume": 253131711.1, "trend": 8.672667, "fair_value": 4.91, "relative_strength": -3.124976, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.977422, "energy": 21.49573, "activity_lines": [ 7.623333, 7.433273, 7.865381, 8.328237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }