{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6968bc5-7301-465e-9e32-5c22e688be97", "symbol": "HCAL", "name": "Hamilton Enhanced Canadian Bank ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.837, "architecture_energy": 65.429, "architecture_maturity": 94.852, "architecture_confidence": 78.579, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.31, "rotation_up": 53.26, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.4, "rotation_down": 28.49, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.407639, 49.938535, 47.566381, 45.202866 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 50.330002, "trend_reference": 42.272858, "distance_from_trend": 0.190599, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.193357, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.92148, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.77618, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.355465, "excess_performance": 0.235044, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.190599, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13032, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.92148, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131675, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.187762, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023867, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.355465, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.602972, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 237800, "relative_activity": 0.894893, "balance": 2.602972, "dry_up": 1.303391, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034041, "annualized_volatility": 0.19426, "from_high_reference": -0.033866, "from_low_reference": 0.854057 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.272858, "fair_value_reference": 26.193357, "structural_low": 34.894188, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.032499, "positive_rate": 0.655172, "directional_follow_through": 0.655172, "median_excess_return": 0.006182, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.09454, "worst_return": -0.102557, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.040715, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.012991, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.384771, "worst_return": -0.097384, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.200707, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.085017, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.370273, "worst_return": -0.085817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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47.726411, 44.813911, 42.771429 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.545757, "volume": 342900, "typical_volume": 265940.0, "trend": 40.867062, "fair_value": 25.554501, "relative_strength": 28.182334, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.568291, "energy": 94.882942, "activity_lines": [ 50.3327, 48.689061, 45.69591, 43.49421 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.025017, "volume": 422300, "typical_volume": 270080.0, "trend": 41.33718, "fair_value": 25.765139, "relative_strength": 23.148928, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.350562, "energy": 80.911675, "activity_lines": [ 50.396767, 49.205353, 46.37005, 44.085046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.139999, "volume": 382400, "typical_volume": 270000.0, "trend": 41.806606, "fair_value": 25.978558, "relative_strength": 23.035112, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.709795, "energy": 67.152672, "activity_lines": [ 50.408377, 49.604136, 46.993181, 44.652969 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.330002, "volume": 237800, "typical_volume": 265730.0, "trend": 42.272858, "fair_value": 26.193357, "relative_strength": 18.77618, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.836646, "energy": 65.429068, "activity_lines": [ 50.407639, 49.938535, 47.566381, 45.202866 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }