{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6a62db1-8079-4169-afb4-93c1cef48631", "symbol": "00640L", "name": "Fubon TOPIX Leveraged 2X Index ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.554, "architecture_energy": 34.614, "architecture_maturity": 70.888, "architecture_confidence": 53.325, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.97, "rotation_up": 44.52, "upward_expansion": 72.89, "deceleration": 67.93, "rotation_down": 25.92, "downward_expansion": 8.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 104.333334, 103.954546, 101.730239, 99.03699 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 107.25, "trend_reference": 95.595, "distance_from_trend": 0.121921, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 61.931795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.731744, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.303655, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.26848, "excess_performance": -0.110832, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.121921, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107364, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.731744, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027307, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053037, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047801, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.26848, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.106789, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 724609, "relative_activity": 0.537269, "balance": 2.106789, "dry_up": 0.670253, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06638, "annualized_volatility": 0.34683, "from_high_reference": -0.019653, "from_low_reference": 0.927224 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 95.595, "fair_value_reference": 61.931795, "structural_low": 77.900002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.025848, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.006364, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.151486, "worst_return": -0.124686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.068419, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.009641, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.289461, "worst_return": -0.112917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.151692, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.068924, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.474548, "worst_return": -0.174233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 1908730.85, "trend": 92.865, "fair_value": 60.650897, "relative_strength": -10.385239, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.170603, "energy": 35.651496, "activity_lines": [ 102.623333, 102.576364, 99.338333, 96.842151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 103.650002, "volume": 482044, "typical_volume": 1620528.15, "trend": 93.763333, "fair_value": 61.071923, "relative_strength": -7.362441, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.768947, "energy": 31.556457, "activity_lines": [ 102.583334, 102.876364, 100.06881, 97.537957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 104.400002, "volume": 1013040, "typical_volume": 1431843.25, "trend": 94.651667, "fair_value": 61.493782, "relative_strength": -5.489282, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.868802, "energy": 27.302021, "activity_lines": [ 103.063334, 103.199092, 100.808096, 98.224194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 107.25, "volume": 724609, "typical_volume": 1348689.15, "trend": 95.595, "fair_value": 61.931795, "relative_strength": -5.303655, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.553728, "energy": 34.614327, "activity_lines": [ 104.333334, 103.954546, 101.730239, 99.03699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }