{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6a74da9-b1b8-439b-a9d3-93447a23f0a6", "symbol": "AFK", "name": "VANECK ETF TR VANECK AFRICA INDEX ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.121, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.934, "architecture_energy": 7.143, "architecture_maturity": 29.186, "architecture_confidence": 68.709, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.14, "rotation_up": 26.72, "upward_expansion": 14.31, "deceleration": 39.69, "rotation_down": 29.96, "downward_expansion": 64.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.686, 26.394296, 26.616888, 26.770298 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.4, "trend_reference": 27.127527, "distance_from_trend": 0.046907, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.145688, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.483363, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.01842, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.007449, "excess_performance": -0.118175, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046907, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013225, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.483363, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078062, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020184, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066361, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007449, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.634385, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 391263, "relative_activity": 1.201116, "balance": 1.634385, "dry_up": 1.568663, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049053, "annualized_volatility": 0.331429, "from_high_reference": -0.079417, "from_low_reference": 0.358489 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.127527, "fair_value_reference": 19.145688, "structural_low": 24.445, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.001491, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.00799, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.137584, "worst_return": -0.093297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.024641, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.045805, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.174107, "worst_return": -0.095428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.05593, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.076805, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.163932, "worst_return": -0.103799, "sufficient": 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"trend": 27.108767, "fair_value": 18.705052, "relative_strength": -5.299196, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.029035, "energy": 46.450502, "activity_lines": [ 26.37918, 26.709904, 26.895073, 27.094482 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 26.11, "volume": 131118, "typical_volume": 371087.65, "trend": 27.145286, "fair_value": 18.781304, "relative_strength": -6.143165, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.601225, "energy": 44.998132, "activity_lines": [ 26.213087, 26.557151, 26.793236, 27.030046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.11, "volume": 64312, "typical_volume": 368729.3, "trend": 27.176229, "fair_value": 18.853462, "relative_strength": -7.477921, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.216915, "energy": 46.028011, "activity_lines": [ 26.150947, 26.430398, 26.706446, 26.963253 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.34, "volume": 468008, "typical_volume": 363395.7, "trend": 27.14686, "fair_value": 18.918823, "relative_strength": -8.8314, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.893037, "energy": 56.385752, "activity_lines": [ 25.836807, 26.176191, 26.563985, 26.844787 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.66, "volume": 721052, "typical_volume": 359438.15, "trend": 27.10486, "fair_value": 18.985182, "relative_strength": -7.175652, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.948654, "energy": 50.182018, "activity_lines": [ 25.731333, 26.035075, 26.476858, 26.74886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.13, "volume": 463642, "typical_volume": 340592.2, "trend": 27.09286, "fair_value": 19.057415, "relative_strength": -6.567603, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.750295, "energy": 38.824277, "activity_lines": [ 25.842667, 26.001413, 26.440587, 26.685966 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.4, "volume": 391263, "typical_volume": 325749.45, "trend": 27.127527, "fair_value": 19.145688, "relative_strength": -2.01842, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.934274, "energy": 7.143468, "activity_lines": [ 26.686, 26.394296, 26.616888, 26.770298 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }