{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6a76181-f499-441e-90dc-837feaf4ccbf", "symbol": "AXTZ", "name": "21Shares Tezos ETP", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.728, "architecture_energy": 70.734, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.887, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.9, "rotation_up": 28.55, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.26, "rotation_down": 56.93, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.22196, 1.265433, 1.48686, 1.672972 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.1514, "trend_reference": 1.97745, "distance_from_trend": -0.417735, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.185122, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.724883, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -62.011945, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.514382, "excess_performance": -0.597265, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.417735, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22202, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.724883, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221699, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.620119, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.265557, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.514382, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.358111, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 540, "relative_activity": 0.368915, "balance": 0.358111, "dry_up": 1.485226, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115458, "annualized_volatility": 0.489514, "from_high_reference": -0.784543, "from_low_reference": 0.01624 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.97745, "fair_value_reference": 4.185122, "structural_low": 1.133, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.004491, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.001209, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 1.036079, "worst_return": -0.423169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.07479, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.061326, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 1.522019, "worst_return": -0.511369, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.123591, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.154269, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.740479, "worst_return": -0.547914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.053365, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.543985, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.192819, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.312375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.381317, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", 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"trend": 2.10955, "fair_value": 4.227824, "relative_strength": -57.901444, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.008031, "energy": 65.733688, "activity_lines": [ 1.323373, 1.355045, 1.602985, 1.792281 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.1606, "volume": 7, "typical_volume": 1587.8, "trend": 2.051737, "fair_value": 4.206193, "relative_strength": -62.325506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.738155, "energy": 71.984177, "activity_lines": [ 1.272547, 1.303349, 1.542949, 1.731059 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.1514, "volume": 540, "typical_volume": 1463.75, "trend": 1.97745, "fair_value": 4.185122, "relative_strength": -62.011945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.727838, "energy": 70.734013, "activity_lines": [ 1.22196, 1.265433, 1.48686, 1.672972 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }