{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6a8c029-d28f-4c46-8f44-96074dbe95b9", "symbol": "GEO", "name": "Geo Exploration Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.296, "architecture_energy": 32.619, "architecture_maturity": 25.557, "architecture_confidence": 83.582, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.58, "rotation_up": 12.65, "upward_expansion": 3.45, "deceleration": 46.16, "rotation_down": 59.63, "downward_expansion": 79.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.00102, 0.001085, 0.001092, 0.001103 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.001, "trend_reference": 0.001136, "distance_from_trend": -0.11946, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.001495, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.331276, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -51.780507, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.166667, "excess_performance": -0.217902, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11946, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.270606, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.331276, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020183, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.517805, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016068, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.77869, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46569538, "relative_activity": 0.367462, "balance": 1.77869, "dry_up": 0.43607, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.284615, "annualized_volatility": 0.699513, "from_high_reference": -0.807692, "from_low_reference": 0.428571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.001136, "fair_value_reference": 0.001495, "structural_low": 0.0007, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.079365, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.046822, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.526316, "worst_return": -0.257143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.150442, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.131297, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.125, "worst_return": -0.369369, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.14375, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.015878, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.371681, "worst_return": -0.45045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.251244, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.389057, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.952381, "worst_return": -0.777215, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077778, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.424, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.444444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.423729, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103448, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.014815, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.21875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090426, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.311289, "energy": 10.583201, "activity_lines": [ 0.001183, 0.001163, 0.001122, 0.001145 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0011, "volume": 63860702, "typical_volume": 147891177.0, "trend": 0.001203, "fair_value": 0.001506, "relative_strength": -47.61532, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.036959, "energy": 12.938339, "activity_lines": [ 0.001147, 0.00116, 0.00112, 0.001137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.001, "volume": 38448772, "typical_volume": 140359534.35, "trend": 0.001176, "fair_value": 0.001502, "relative_strength": -52.458438, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.999851, "energy": 22.001675, "activity_lines": [ 0.001083, 0.001137, 0.00111, 0.001124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.001, "volume": 72179214, "typical_volume": 139524712.75, "trend": 0.001148, "fair_value": 0.001498, "relative_strength": -52.409261, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.722274, "energy": 24.747607, "activity_lines": [ 0.001043, 0.001113, 0.0011, 0.001113 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.001, "volume": 46569538, "typical_volume": 126733103.0, "trend": 0.001136, "fair_value": 0.001495, "relative_strength": -51.780507, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.296491, "energy": 32.619228, "activity_lines": [ 0.00102, 0.001085, 0.001092, 0.001103 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }