{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6ac81b7-7caf-418c-9731-dcb6809bf514", "symbol": "ARCT", "name": "Arctic Minerals AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.457, "architecture_energy": 40.899, "architecture_maturity": 47.802, "architecture_confidence": 92.278, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.1, "rotation_up": 23.9, "upward_expansion": 5.3, "deceleration": 53.31, "rotation_down": 50.16, "downward_expansion": 78.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.149, 5.217455, 5.333571, 5.678602 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.28, "trend_reference": 6.471167, "distance_from_trend": -0.184073, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.451603, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.18609, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.647441, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.344099, "excess_performance": -0.405594, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.184073, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013178, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.18609, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122005, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196474, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079964, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.344099, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.087081, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 202867, "relative_activity": 1.110196, "balance": 1.087081, "dry_up": 0.784307, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10322, "annualized_volatility": 0.490271, "from_high_reference": -0.593846, "from_low_reference": 0.313433 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.471167, "fair_value_reference": 4.451603, "structural_low": 4.805, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.007353, "positive_rate": 0.459459, "directional_follow_through": 0.540541, "median_excess_return": -0.016939, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 1.318548, "worst_return": -0.359253, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.045545, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.048423, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 3.264574, "worst_return": -0.328377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.062857, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.064235, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.443946, "worst_return": -0.219331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.235915, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.188341, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.129121, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.109375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.153226, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": 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6.47, "fair_value": 4.416699, "relative_strength": -8.423947, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.034108, "energy": 30.771077, "activity_lines": [ 5.585333, 5.518182, 5.827143, 6.284022 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 5.3, "volume": 11913, "typical_volume": 288043.65, "trend": 6.486, "fair_value": 4.419936, "relative_strength": -17.735021, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.736582, "energy": 31.789627, "activity_lines": [ 5.529333, 5.478182, 5.729619, 6.208538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 5.28, "volume": 36157, "typical_volume": 240297.3, "trend": 6.51, "fair_value": 4.423718, "relative_strength": -19.995926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.315317, "energy": 35.666602, "activity_lines": [ 5.456667, 5.446, 5.643286, 6.130731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.14, "volume": 154978, "typical_volume": 230511.55, "trend": 6.515333, "fair_value": 4.428077, "relative_strength": -19.873891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.50967, "energy": 40.048642, "activity_lines": [ 5.329333, 5.389636, 5.557286, 6.042344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.0, "volume": 109926, "typical_volume": 209794.25, "trend": 6.516667, "fair_value": 4.431763, "relative_strength": -20.951321, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.596938, "energy": 56.78321, "activity_lines": [ 5.198, 5.312182, 5.470381, 5.944581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.925, "volume": 81113, "typical_volume": 193793.8, "trend": 6.5175, "fair_value": 4.43641, "relative_strength": -23.055148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.973586, "energy": 62.424591, "activity_lines": [ 5.060333, 5.234727, 5.393, 5.841892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.23, "volume": 179362, "typical_volume": 189916.0, "trend": 6.5235, "fair_value": 4.443654, "relative_strength": -19.106198, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.802421, "energy": 49.931888, "activity_lines": [ 5.094, 5.222273, 5.357167, 5.758828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.28, "volume": 202867, "typical_volume": 182730.85, "trend": 6.471167, "fair_value": 4.451603, "relative_strength": -19.647441, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.456567, "energy": 40.899144, "activity_lines": [ 5.149, 5.217455, 5.333571, 5.678602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }