{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6aceb45-2839-48ca-9e3b-59f843b981ec", "symbol": "VHY", "name": "Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.799, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.801, "architecture_energy": 80.225, "architecture_maturity": 6.438, "architecture_confidence": 73.374, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.6, "rotation_up": 77.93, "upward_expansion": 89.82, "deceleration": 44.8, "rotation_down": 8.97, "downward_expansion": 16.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 85.384667, 84.424004, 83.9243, 83.508587 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 87.199997, "trend_reference": 82.617221, "distance_from_trend": 0.05547, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 69.482617, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.25499, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.506994, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.114917, "excess_performance": 0.051211, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05547, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030249, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.25499, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017826, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.03507, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043592, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114917, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.555854, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1065402, "relative_activity": 1.476004, "balance": 2.555854, "dry_up": 1.479855, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017197, "annualized_volatility": 0.103288, "from_high_reference": -0.005021, "from_low_reference": 0.182057 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 82.617221, "fair_value_reference": 69.482617, "structural_low": 78.717107, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.007618, "positive_rate": 0.589744, "directional_follow_through": 0.589744, "median_excess_return": 0.003568, "regime_survival": 0.74359, "best_return": 0.07711, "worst_return": -0.04581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.010431, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.007162, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.083683, "worst_return": -0.021307, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.05213, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.022344, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.085882, "worst_return": -0.016117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.682602, "energy": 12.131345, "activity_lines": [ 83.126857, 83.188893, 83.222964, 82.810363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 83.940002, "volume": 1100393, "typical_volume": 701086.9, "trend": 81.997388, "fair_value": 69.106362, "relative_strength": 5.709152, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.369837, "energy": 27.057127, "activity_lines": [ 83.4157, 83.318794, 83.308374, 82.9498 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 85.730003, "volume": 1182586, "typical_volume": 709589.0, "trend": 82.271418, "fair_value": 69.290313, "relative_strength": 5.248992, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.73784, "energy": 58.011783, "activity_lines": [ 84.260001, 83.755675, 83.556599, 83.190614 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 87.199997, "volume": 1065402, "typical_volume": 721815.15, "trend": 82.617221, "fair_value": 69.482617, "relative_strength": 3.506994, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.800879, "energy": 80.225007, "activity_lines": [ 85.384667, 84.424004, 83.9243, 83.508587 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }