{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6ad76cd-b075-430a-b1f2-fae8e0338bbd", "symbol": "MITK", "name": "Mitek Systems Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.71, "architecture_energy": 24.637, "architecture_maturity": 62.081, "architecture_confidence": 89.778, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.34, "rotation_up": 35.4, "upward_expansion": 64.23, "deceleration": 85.24, "rotation_down": 25.55, "downward_expansion": 14.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.808667, 18.030818, 17.173833, 16.335323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.49, "trend_reference": 15.040167, "distance_from_trend": 0.229375, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.333301, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.631475, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 27.970553, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.562975, "excess_performance": 0.375522, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.229375, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.217236, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.631475, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.183044, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.279706, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084607, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.562975, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.224415, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4102383, "relative_activity": 0.851518, "balance": 1.224415, "dry_up": 0.727323, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13398, "annualized_volatility": 0.550494, "from_high_reference": -0.121615, "from_low_reference": 1.167644 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.040167, "fair_value_reference": 11.333301, "structural_low": 11.03, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.070059, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.062164, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.192893, "worst_return": -0.165644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042269, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.01559, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.252145, "worst_return": -0.257371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.211506, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.239267, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.107062, "worst_return": -0.232087, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046214, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01768, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019715, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.13544, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006686, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071214, 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"up", "direction": 70.107935, "energy": 74.280083, "activity_lines": [ 18.821333, 17.734273, 16.43431, 15.477968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.97, "volume": 2980893, "typical_volume": 4908471.3, "trend": 14.3445, "fair_value": 11.214519, "relative_strength": 39.808232, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.545151, "energy": 70.316283, "activity_lines": [ 19.042333, 18.101455, 16.759, 15.794667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.87, "volume": 4011020, "typical_volume": 4873272.2, "trend": 14.5555, "fair_value": 11.256763, "relative_strength": 25.375487, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.005079, "energy": 44.392564, "activity_lines": [ 18.395333, 18.025727, 16.862786, 15.957602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.7, "volume": 2921888, "typical_volume": 4824251.35, "trend": 14.779833, "fair_value": 11.287917, "relative_strength": 22.436754, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.048102, "energy": 28.858749, "activity_lines": [ 17.717333, 17.871636, 16.93981, 16.095957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.49, "volume": 4102383, "typical_volume": 4817729.1, "trend": 15.040167, "fair_value": 11.333301, "relative_strength": 27.970553, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.710123, "energy": 24.636747, "activity_lines": [ 17.808667, 18.030818, 17.173833, 16.335323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }