{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6b34ad8-36d1-4eb3-84e3-7a354dd12b10", "symbol": "603871", "name": "Jiayou International Logistics Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.82, "architecture_energy": 20.95, "architecture_maturity": 84.194, "architecture_confidence": 61.445, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.18, "rotation_up": 44.3, "upward_expansion": 24.43, "deceleration": 38.44, "rotation_down": 19.18, "downward_expansion": 53.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.340667, 11.880803, 11.8868, 12.353651 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.42, "trend_reference": 12.936499, "distance_from_trend": -0.039926, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.591119, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07151, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.15271, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.1, "excess_performance": -0.056796, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039926, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048759, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07151, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027991, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041527, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061295, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.1, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.244441, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57319645, "relative_activity": 0.981495, "balance": 1.244441, "dry_up": 1.117115, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085558, "annualized_volatility": 0.419937, "from_high_reference": -0.249547, "from_low_reference": 0.191939 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.936499, "fair_value_reference": 11.591119, "structural_low": 10.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.000523, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006822, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.104, "worst_return": -0.074862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.058639, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021607, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.229723, "worst_return": -0.112445, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.091447, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.070265, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.091447, "worst_return": 0.091447, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.245274, "energy": 63.831555, "activity_lines": [ 11.083158, 11.282931, 11.990609, 12.555177 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.2, "volume": 50214491, "typical_volume": 58271775.95, "trend": 13.064832, "fair_value": 11.492643, "relative_strength": -9.226097, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.908653, "energy": 56.11593, "activity_lines": [ 11.085568, 11.237149, 11.837918, 12.431102 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.44, "volume": 93051638, "typical_volume": 59088563.2, "trend": 13.018166, "fair_value": 11.527673, "relative_strength": -0.655598, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.883369, "energy": 27.035909, "activity_lines": [ 11.565333, 11.438386, 11.824275, 12.39079 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.01, "volume": 60373740, "typical_volume": 58475915.4, "trend": 12.987499, "fair_value": 11.561635, "relative_strength": 3.263011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.743909, "energy": 16.783418, "activity_lines": [ 12.134667, 11.733179, 11.877823, 12.390264 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.42, "volume": 57319645, "typical_volume": 58400329.4, "trend": 12.936499, "fair_value": 11.591119, "relative_strength": -4.15271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.820202, "energy": 20.949578, "activity_lines": [ 12.340667, 11.880803, 11.8868, 12.353651 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }