{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6b8b465-e995-4968-93f9-172e5b773b4f", "symbol": "ACIC", "name": "American Coastal Insurance Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.037, "architecture_energy": 42.201, "architecture_maturity": 24.185, "architecture_confidence": 87.339, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.45, "rotation_up": 18.15, "upward_expansion": 11.58, "deceleration": 37.26, "rotation_down": 56.64, "downward_expansion": 77.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.479333, 10.654, 10.767238, 10.892366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.44, "trend_reference": 11.016333, "distance_from_trend": -0.052316, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.256806, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.017861, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.413183, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.076923, "excess_performance": -0.264377, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052316, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022218, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.017861, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061995, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.174132, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019503, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076923, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.275531, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1835534, "relative_activity": 1.465296, "balance": 1.275531, "dry_up": 1.121171, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076232, "annualized_volatility": 0.278338, "from_high_reference": -0.15122, "from_low_reference": 0.111693 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.016333, "fair_value_reference": 10.256806, "structural_low": 9.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.079723, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.099793, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 2.192769, "worst_return": -0.424354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.031545, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010787, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 1.875727, "worst_return": -0.574584, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.027457, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.151097, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 2.525957, "worst_return": -0.795215, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -16.033428, "energy": 11.253901, "activity_lines": [ 10.998667, 10.826545, 11.004667, 11.076484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.17, "volume": 990715, "typical_volume": 1251441.9, "trend": 11.176898, "fair_value": 10.125293, "relative_strength": -12.913239, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.544108, "energy": 17.93108, "activity_lines": [ 11.127333, 10.887091, 11.010619, 11.074498 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.25, "volume": 1315021, "typical_volume": 1203427.15, "trend": 11.120155, "fair_value": 10.162643, "relative_strength": -16.309913, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.740571, "energy": 21.778901, "activity_lines": [ 10.89, 10.792182, 10.927619, 11.014698 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.28, "volume": 1149971, "typical_volume": 1186819.8, "trend": 11.070667, "fair_value": 10.198132, "relative_strength": -14.455926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.672381, "energy": 23.11737, "activity_lines": [ 10.676, 10.707818, 10.852905, 10.960495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.62, "volume": 1317309, "typical_volume": 1201901.45, "trend": 11.045333, "fair_value": 10.235193, "relative_strength": -11.937478, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.325857, "energy": 29.902767, "activity_lines": [ 10.59, 10.695636, 10.817, 10.931419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.44, "volume": 1835534, "typical_volume": 1252671.2, "trend": 11.016333, "fair_value": 10.256806, "relative_strength": -17.413183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.036734, "energy": 42.200636, "activity_lines": [ 10.479333, 10.654, 10.767238, 10.892366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }