{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6bb3024-e070-4472-b609-82af1571e3ca", "symbol": "002803", "name": "Xiamen Jihong Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.282, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.718, "architecture_energy": 36.018, "architecture_maturity": 77.199, "architecture_confidence": 55.46, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.05, "rotation_up": 16.69, "upward_expansion": 19.36, "deceleration": 69.75, "rotation_down": 65.29, "downward_expansion": 42.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.928667, 20.61125, 20.961685, 20.426337 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.48, "trend_reference": 19.85701, "distance_from_trend": -0.018986, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.88355, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.226426, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.318694, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.01864, "excess_performance": -0.02604, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018986, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090147, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.226426, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148194, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.013187, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036888, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01864, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.682628, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98409049, "relative_activity": 1.93269, "balance": 0.682628, "dry_up": 1.344245, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113182, "annualized_volatility": 0.516897, "from_high_reference": -0.28224, "from_low_reference": 0.273203 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.85701, "fair_value_reference": 15.88355, "structural_low": 15.55, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.019568, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008643, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.359309, "worst_return": -0.217785, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.051267, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052013, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.331546, "worst_return": -0.204304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.056154, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.051905, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.634426, "worst_return": -0.446219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"up", "direction": 49.923296, "energy": 39.292892, "activity_lines": [ 22.711348, 22.683959, 21.546451, 20.706748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.84, "volume": 61843954, "typical_volume": 47652447.9, "trend": 19.72701, "fair_value": 15.883183, "relative_strength": -3.968916, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.418598, "energy": 15.98054, "activity_lines": [ 20.846666, 21.833204, 21.309307, 20.587629 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.5, "volume": 54025042, "typical_volume": 47642392.6, "trend": 19.75301, "fair_value": 15.873845, "relative_strength": -4.244922, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.296845, "energy": 38.438838, "activity_lines": [ 19.260666, 21.002642, 21.039353, 20.443951 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.48, "volume": 98409049, "typical_volume": 50918169.25, "trend": 19.85701, "fair_value": 15.88355, "relative_strength": 1.318694, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.718481, "energy": 36.018377, "activity_lines": [ 18.928667, 20.61125, 20.961685, 20.426337 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }