{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6c24a24-b60a-4b03-acd2-395339224772", "symbol": "ALEAC", "name": "EdiliziAcrobatica S.p.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.064, "architecture_energy": 64.068, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.192, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.21, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.75, "rotation_down": 44.97, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.9, 2.9, 3.045238, 3.316559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.9, "trend_reference": 3.733667, "distance_from_trend": -0.223284, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.817029, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.629015, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.181878, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.382979, "excess_performance": -0.43629, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.223284, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12792, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.629015, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042718, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.371819, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09799, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.382979, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026525, "annualized_volatility": 0.297739, "from_high_reference": -0.510135, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.733667, "fair_value_reference": 7.817029, "structural_low": 2.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.026667, "positive_rate": 0.243902, "directional_follow_through": 0.658537, "median_excess_return": -0.044689, "regime_survival": 0.926829, "best_return": 0.177829, "worst_return": -0.162791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.105263, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.14867, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.147117, "worst_return": -0.284706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.17931, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.159792, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.092105, "worst_return": -0.386891, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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3.320714, 3.634129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 950.4, "trend": 3.924667, "fair_value": 8.18928, "relative_strength": -37.839166, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.917699, "energy": 84.203625, "activity_lines": [ 2.9, 2.94, 3.248762, 3.564581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 934.35, "trend": 3.884667, "fair_value": 8.097799, "relative_strength": -37.058171, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.520003, "energy": 80.026948, "activity_lines": [ 2.9, 2.914545, 3.185857, 3.498473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 845.55, "trend": 3.841333, "fair_value": 8.003154, "relative_strength": -36.466946, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.102357, "energy": 66.605484, "activity_lines": [ 2.9, 2.903636, 3.132476, 3.434946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 805.9, "trend": 3.793667, "fair_value": 7.910408, "relative_strength": -36.59495, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.039128, "energy": 64.007443, "activity_lines": [ 2.9, 2.9, 3.085762, 3.374215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 765.65, "trend": 3.733667, "fair_value": 7.817029, "relative_strength": -37.181878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.064045, "energy": 64.067619, "activity_lines": [ 2.9, 2.9, 3.045238, 3.316559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }