{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "a6c8511e-f6b8-415c-b1cb-3bb28a87365a",
    "symbol": "CRAV",
    "name": "Caisse r\u00e9gionale de Cr\u00e9dit Agricole Mutuel Atlantique Vend\u00e9e",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 48.055,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -38.743,
    "architecture_energy": 39.64,
    "architecture_maturity": 39.912,
    "architecture_confidence": 71.349,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 28.1,
        "rotation_up": 14.18,
        "upward_expansion": 17.72,
        "deceleration": 60.78,
        "rotation_down": 71.65,
        "downward_expansion": 47.39
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        146.859636,
        151.333117,
        147.655212
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Stable",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 134.5,
    "trend_reference": 143.298598,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.0614,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 102.032518,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.318207,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -10.06934,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.018437,
    "excess_performance": -0.034875,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.0614,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.061447,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.318207,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.264256,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.100693,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.277878,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.018437,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.229727,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1857,
      "relative_activity": 0.940539,
      "balance": 1.229727,
      "dry_up": 1.093244,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.073523,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.363289,
      "from_high_reference": -0.276959,
      "from_low_reference": 0.167153
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 143.298598,
      "fair_value_reference": 102.032518,
      "structural_low": 119.936909,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.000316,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.012168,
        "regime_survival": 0.416667,
        "best_return": 0.144719,
        "worst_return": -0.120909,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.01487,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001647,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.176511,
        "worst_return": -0.064626,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.11262,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.12296,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": 0.017143,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
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        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.081747,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.284036,
        "worst_return": -0.038096,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.021888,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.039877,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.030857,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.067304,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-10-31",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2026-01-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.085426,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.129376,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": true
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    ],
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        "trend": 132.278983,
        "fair_value": 94.934594,
        "relative_strength": 10.834609,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 22.708159,
        "energy": 19.370212,
        "activity_lines": [
          132.915291,
          129.840513,
          131.050004,
          131.036157
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 150.160004,
        "volume": 1956,
        "typical_volume": 2449.0,
        "trend": 132.380377,
        "fair_value": 95.433015,
        "relative_strength": 17.361181,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 47.192608,
        "energy": 46.681445,
        "activity_lines": [
          139.791857,
          133.705878,
          132.84194,
          132.189771
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 151.797897,
        "volume": 4128,
        "typical_volume": 2477.25,
        "trend": 132.655309,
        "fair_value": 95.925093,
        "relative_strength": 17.718455,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.982542,
        "energy": 77.259204,
        "activity_lines": [
          145.261911,
          137.517001,
          134.643069,
          133.442514
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 155.800003,
        "volume": 3008,
        "typical_volume": 2587.9,
        "trend": 133.181938,
        "fair_value": 96.413041,
        "relative_strength": 22.151942,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.86278,
        "energy": 86.150667,
        "activity_lines": [
          150.394306,
          141.663677,
          136.701394,
          134.93572
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 158.800003,
        "volume": 2802,
        "typical_volume": 2435.75,
        "trend": 133.847564,
        "fair_value": 96.915235,
        "relative_strength": 21.078624,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.499448,
        "energy": 89.651544,
        "activity_lines": [
          154.285319,
          145.845205,
          138.924704,
          136.588499
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 165.5,
        "volume": 2967,
        "typical_volume": 2542.2,
        "trend": 135.003007,
        "fair_value": 97.442413,
        "relative_strength": 24.053103,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.667753,
        "energy": 93.673749,
        "activity_lines": [
          158.923721,
          150.688631,
          141.67997,
          138.630591
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 183.0,
        "volume": 1728,
        "typical_volume": 2526.95,
        "trend": 136.555244,
        "fair_value": 98.085248,
        "relative_strength": 35.079605,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 95.100212,
        "energy": 97.263835,
        "activity_lines": [
          167.786527,
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          145.977694,
          141.727172
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 179.0,
        "volume": 198,
        "typical_volume": 2348.1,
        "trend": 137.897453,
        "fair_value": 98.69375,
        "relative_strength": 28.762159,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.309004,
        "energy": 93.252212,
        "activity_lines": [
          173.126667,
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          149.696395,
          144.465543
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 164.0,
        "volume": 206,
        "typical_volume": 2197.85,
        "trend": 139.205033,
        "fair_value": 99.210733,
        "relative_strength": 16.137864,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.85325,
        "energy": 83.786973,
        "activity_lines": [
          171.653334,
          165.131175,
          151.784102,
          146.149578
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 151.5,
        "volume": 674,
        "typical_volume": 2067.6,
        "trend": 140.212939,
        "fair_value": 99.633101,
        "relative_strength": 7.083185,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.052977,
        "energy": 57.203097,
        "activity_lines": [
          165.466667,
          163.841451,
          152.550617,
          146.942802
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 151.0,
        "volume": 122,
        "typical_volume": 1979.6,
        "trend": 141.248375,
        "fair_value": 100.059797,
        "relative_strength": 4.602796,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.355675,
        "energy": 35.445034,
        "activity_lines": [
          159.6,
          162.188288,
          153.176967,
          147.638741
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 143.720001,
        "volume": 3528,
        "typical_volume": 2018.65,
        "trend": 142.061293,
        "fair_value": 100.430613,
        "relative_strength": 1.094837,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 21.451098,
        "energy": 28.738716,
        "activity_lines": [
          152.273334,
          159.036326,
          153.057144,
          147.798201
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 146.339996,
        "volume": 1846,
        "typical_volume": 1954.85,
        "trend": 142.747058,
        "fair_value": 100.852587,
        "relative_strength": 2.436136,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 16.517452,
        "energy": 30.318216,
        "activity_lines": [
          148.438666,
          156.477818,
          153.12531,
          148.074246
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 144.199997,
        "volume": 4119,
        "typical_volume": 2059.4,
        "trend": 143.2055,
        "fair_value": 101.272202,
        "relative_strength": 0.332429,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 9.061111,
        "energy": 26.954436,
        "activity_lines": [
          146.067998,
          153.629454,
          152.912962,
          148.167984
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 144.220001,
        "volume": 812,
        "typical_volume": 2027.05,
        "trend": 143.462471,
        "fair_value": 101.68673,
        "relative_strength": -1.347347,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -2.093475,
        "energy": 24.918575,
        "activity_lines": [
          145.023999,
          150.995636,
          152.624029,
          148.233436
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 134.5,
        "volume": 1857,
        "typical_volume": 1974.4,
        "trend": 143.298598,
        "fair_value": 102.032518,
        "relative_strength": -10.06934,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -38.742606,
        "energy": 39.639851,
        "activity_lines": [
          141.225333,
          146.859636,
          151.333117,
          147.655212
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}