{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6cc5080-9846-4d56-8840-79dc8be6806f", "symbol": "BABA", "name": "Alibaba Group Holding Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.178, "architecture_energy": 20.527, "architecture_maturity": 98.292, "architecture_confidence": 46.263, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.47, "rotation_up": 41.91, "upward_expansion": 23.31, "deceleration": 41.3, "rotation_down": 17.25, "downward_expansion": 54.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 120.649333, 114.310226, 117.446014, 121.772354 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 128.41, "trend_reference": 130.518106, "distance_from_trend": -0.016152, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 106.272795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.208305, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.916928, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.202471, "excess_performance": -0.328096, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016152, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096426, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.208305, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130415, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189169, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072619, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.202471, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.621399, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45875293, "relative_activity": 0.824345, "balance": 0.621399, "dry_up": 0.903729, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087076, "annualized_volatility": 0.461886, "from_high_reference": -0.327314, "from_low_reference": 0.395913 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 130.518106, "fair_value_reference": 106.272795, 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"2026-07-10", "close": 112.33, "volume": 88294362, "typical_volume": 57748671.75, "trend": 134.696121, "fair_value": 105.532919, "relative_strength": -28.175182, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.203931, "energy": 78.240244, "activity_lines": [ 103.844, 110.064797, 118.295382, 125.25769 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 114.97, "volume": 59001211, "typical_volume": 58735917.55, "trend": 133.581548, "fair_value": 105.714324, "relative_strength": -25.075, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.048254, "energy": 54.687376, "activity_lines": [ 107.287333, 109.783913, 117.502295, 123.985037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 112.14, "volume": 46618210, "typical_volume": 57478385.3, "trend": 132.291729, "fair_value": 105.827075, "relative_strength": -26.234078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.884499, "energy": 38.346475, "activity_lines": [ 109.644, 109.421158, 116.572111, 122.601712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 122.25, "volume": 49677532, "typical_volume": 57659662.55, "trend": 131.223319, "fair_value": 106.026635, "relative_strength": -20.269508, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.479964, "energy": 24.39094, "activity_lines": [ 115.034667, 111.246147, 116.687844, 121.953858 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 128.41, "volume": 45875293, "typical_volume": 55650608.55, "trend": 130.518106, "fair_value": 106.272795, "relative_strength": -18.916928, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.178075, "energy": 20.527285, "activity_lines": [ 120.649333, 114.310226, 117.446014, 121.772354 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }