{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6cd6351-eea6-4dcb-bd46-8898c71c6e0e", "symbol": "EWI", "name": "ISHARES INC MSCI ITALY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.69, "architecture_energy": 77.357, "architecture_maturity": 41.729, "architecture_confidence": 86.582, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.18, "rotation_up": 70.12, "upward_expansion": 91.45, "deceleration": 45.93, "rotation_down": 19.21, "downward_expansion": 15.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.645333, 60.905128, 59.550206, 58.168405 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 63.35, "trend_reference": 56.640309, "distance_from_trend": 0.118461, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.69928, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.519211, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.420524, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.147682, "excess_performance": 0.022057, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.118461, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05011, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.519211, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036109, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.044205, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028168, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.147682, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.570699, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2405444, "relative_activity": 1.151944, "balance": 1.570699, "dry_up": 0.982466, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029048, "annualized_volatility": 0.216289, "from_high_reference": -0.00643, "from_low_reference": 0.31428 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.640309, "fair_value_reference": 41.69928, "structural_low": 49.509695, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.014302, "positive_rate": 0.675, "directional_follow_through": 0.675, "median_excess_return": -0.002631, "regime_survival": 0.775, "best_return": 0.130274, "worst_return": -0.062297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.044447, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 9.3e-05, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.154225, "worst_return": -0.039553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.086461, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.010485, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.298135, "worst_return": -0.003745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 60.137588, 59.324697, 57.815902, 56.78366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 60.26, "volume": 1974853, "typical_volume": 2368509.15, "trend": 55.858712, "fair_value": 41.076799, "relative_strength": 3.771736, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.003402, "energy": 62.275223, "activity_lines": [ 60.227333, 59.606225, 58.193303, 57.082866 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.14, "volume": 1718084, "typical_volume": 2209399.3, "trend": 56.077708, "fair_value": 41.269239, "relative_strength": 4.041772, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.294001, "energy": 61.3564, "activity_lines": [ 60.226667, 59.824725, 58.540075, 57.359078 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.6, "volume": 2107800, "typical_volume": 2111956.9, "trend": 56.327717, "fair_value": 41.478101, "relative_strength": 5.226847, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.696284, "energy": 61.305739, "activity_lines": [ 60.743333, 60.243437, 58.986858, 57.715355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.35, "volume": 2405444, "typical_volume": 2088160.0, "trend": 56.640309, "fair_value": 41.69928, "relative_strength": 4.420524, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.68984, "energy": 77.356603, "activity_lines": [ 61.645333, 60.905128, 59.550206, 58.168405 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }