{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6cec9dc-aaf3-45fb-9d49-0cefd1562757", "symbol": "DNO", "name": "DNO ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.42, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.24, "architecture_energy": 21.082, "architecture_maturity": 16.065, "architecture_confidence": 79.289, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.59, "rotation_up": 32.15, "upward_expansion": 16.28, "deceleration": 60.72, "rotation_down": 42.24, "downward_expansion": 44.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.004, 17.038182, 17.622225, 17.703892 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.74, "trend_reference": 17.419722, "distance_from_trend": -0.03902, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.544071, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.450095, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.59862, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.137556, "excess_performance": 0.012562, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03902, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057543, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.450095, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273012, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055986, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167424, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.137556, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.824851, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7377795, "relative_activity": 0.590267, "balance": 0.824851, "dry_up": 0.714638, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066189, "annualized_volatility": 0.408387, "from_high_reference": -0.222616, "from_low_reference": 0.441037 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.419722, "fair_value_reference": 11.544071, "structural_low": 14.485974, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.037775, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.004483, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.264945, "worst_return": -0.018814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.136653, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.178804, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.302605, "worst_return": -0.091949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.244084, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.192991, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.641356, "worst_return": -0.003535, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.238703, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.000171, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.187398, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.547029, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.040001, "volume": 6597402, "typical_volume": 17525812.0, "trend": 17.20956, "fair_value": 11.364456, "relative_strength": -0.192726, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.613409, "energy": 51.638863, "activity_lines": [ 16.745334, 17.323637, 17.938489, 17.735364 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.969999, "volume": 10730341, "typical_volume": 15991997.8, "trend": 17.317077, "fair_value": 11.429091, "relative_strength": 2.386239, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.54958, "energy": 32.299457, "activity_lines": [ 17.135333, 17.349455, 17.918854, 17.784425 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.690001, "volume": 11023700, "typical_volume": 14379766.25, "trend": 17.361184, "fair_value": 11.485095, "relative_strength": -5.474281, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.431838, "energy": 20.52865, "activity_lines": [ 17.062667, 17.166182, 17.768323, 17.743969 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.74, "volume": 7377795, "typical_volume": 12499073.3, "trend": 17.419722, "fair_value": 11.544071, "relative_strength": -5.59862, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.239669, "energy": 21.081776, "activity_lines": [ 17.004, 17.038182, 17.622225, 17.703892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }