{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6d9da37-2291-46d0-9795-8d6fb89d6761", "symbol": "NXTG", "name": "FIRST TRUST INDXX NEXTG ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.068, "architecture_energy": 25.795, "architecture_maturity": 72.859, "architecture_confidence": 92.552, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.15, "rotation_up": 26.99, "upward_expansion": 56.44, "deceleration": 91.04, "rotation_down": 27.62, "downward_expansion": 20.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 147.87188, 148.956052, 147.519692, 141.222462 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 152.51, "trend_reference": 132.820473, "distance_from_trend": 0.148242, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 93.453583, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.631933, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.378909, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.322027, "excess_performance": 0.134574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.148242, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122957, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.631933, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035437, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.113789, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014312, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.322027, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.126765, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32248, "relative_activity": 0.583821, "balance": 1.126765, "dry_up": 1.010467, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054161, "annualized_volatility": 0.253537, "from_high_reference": -0.086508, "from_low_reference": 0.575892 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 132.820473, "fair_value_reference": 93.453583, "structural_low": 107.691, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.03449, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.00775, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.196728, "worst_return": -0.037101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.083144, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.00232, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.378053, "worst_return": -0.004571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.106635, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.022218, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.405136, "worst_return": -0.008589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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133.637792 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 148.0825, "volume": 31981, "typical_volume": 48700.55, "trend": 126.195695, "fair_value": 90.900258, "relative_strength": 11.91566, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.679529, "energy": 58.868027, "activity_lines": [ 152.028842, 151.641334, 142.268984, 135.136268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 152.0125, "volume": 55609, "typical_volume": 50856.05, "trend": 127.715353, "fair_value": 91.430227, "relative_strength": 12.417642, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.551573, "energy": 49.929518, "activity_lines": [ 151.779742, 152.122498, 144.009524, 136.801869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 144.29, "volume": 81798, "typical_volume": 53758.4, "trend": 128.967639, "fair_value": 91.915146, "relative_strength": 10.936594, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.597124, "energy": 35.244199, "activity_lines": [ 148.929467, 150.894261, 144.854385, 137.871201 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 145.0719, "volume": 47971, "typical_volume": 55511.8, "trend": 130.201254, "fair_value": 92.401416, "relative_strength": 12.87023, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.29867, "energy": 26.480206, "activity_lines": [ 147.070653, 149.808524, 145.660766, 138.910185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 144.93, "volume": 61240, "typical_volume": 57485.15, "trend": 131.398456, "fair_value": 92.899773, "relative_strength": 11.697551, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.111243, "energy": 22.064947, "activity_lines": [ 145.99434, 148.652828, 146.304826, 139.860427 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 152.51, "volume": 32248, "typical_volume": 55236.1, "trend": 132.820473, "fair_value": 93.453583, "relative_strength": 11.378909, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.067942, "energy": 25.795057, "activity_lines": [ 147.87188, 148.956052, 147.519692, 141.222462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }