{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6da5b35-9b97-493d-acbd-a9b3ca4719c1", "symbol": "UBL", "name": "United Breweries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.493, "architecture_energy": 24.215, "architecture_maturity": 94.015, "architecture_confidence": 76.345, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.76, "rotation_up": 36.43, "upward_expansion": 21.47, "deceleration": 44.1, "rotation_down": 24.3, "downward_expansion": 57.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 1388.507628, 1366.761416, 1369.135739, 1408.364584 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1400.300049, "trend_reference": 1455.141757, "distance_from_trend": -0.037688, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1784.832773, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.215445, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.681241, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.08165, "excess_performance": -0.037941, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037688, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067691, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.215445, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006053, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106812, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049277, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.08165, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.081141, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 642626, "relative_activity": 0.781651, "balance": 1.081141, "dry_up": 0.992142, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039212, "annualized_volatility": 0.246194, "from_high_reference": -0.278159, "from_low_reference": 0.072526 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1455.141757, "fair_value_reference": 1784.832773, "structural_low": 1305.609397, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.00597, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.020682, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.153069, "worst_return": -0.155329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.059187, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.062489, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.134291, "worst_return": -0.179334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.040831, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.047193, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.281532, 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1786.514251, "relative_strength": -9.569802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.077826, "energy": 38.364801, "activity_lines": [ 1348.269507, 1341.63137, 1368.859479, 1415.186356 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1419.896128, "volume": 809000, "typical_volume": 816100.95, "trend": 1460.02509, "fair_value": 1785.589731, "relative_strength": -9.332805, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.956971, "energy": 21.375355, "activity_lines": [ 1374.691117, 1356.929638, 1369.40027, 1412.217812 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1400.300049, "volume": 642626, "typical_volume": 822138.8, "trend": 1455.141757, "fair_value": 1784.832773, "relative_strength": -10.681241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.492666, "energy": 24.215377, "activity_lines": [ 1388.507628, 1366.761416, 1369.135739, 1408.364584 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }