{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "a6dd4baf-8157-4432-aa54-260a8d1ec418",
    "symbol": "PGF",
    "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR FINL PFD ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch",
    "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch",
    "confidence": 77.926,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -59.19,
    "architecture_energy": 44.931,
    "architecture_maturity": 22.307,
    "architecture_confidence": 93.751,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 15.58,
        "rotation_up": 19.7,
        "upward_expansion": 6.81,
        "deceleration": 46.9,
        "rotation_down": 55.1,
        "downward_expansion": 80.14
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        13.614388,
        13.678963,
        13.737033
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Stable",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 13.58,
    "trend_reference": 13.829419,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.018035,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 13.37763,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.015127,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -12.903662,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.029987,
    "excess_performance": -0.155612,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.018035,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.004523,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.015127,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.039204,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.129037,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.02771,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.029987,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.758116,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 864377,
      "relative_activity": 1.404508,
      "balance": 0.758116,
      "dry_up": 1.153749,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 5
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.010927,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.055306,
      "from_high_reference": -0.052708,
      "from_low_reference": 0.005926
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 13.829419,
      "fair_value_reference": 13.37763,
      "structural_low": 13.5,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 21,
        "median_return": 0.002837,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": -0.008737,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.096574,
        "worst_return": -0.061031,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.005064,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.034251,
        "regime_survival": 0.375,
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        "worst_return": -0.086802,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.000356,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.057432,
        "regime_survival": 0.6,
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        "worst_return": -0.140908,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
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        "worst_return": -0.148368,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
      {
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      },
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      },
      {
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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        "direction": -59.521463,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 596763.1,
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        "relative_strength": -9.815111,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -55.88047,
        "energy": 40.035818,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.652817,
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          13.731164,
          13.791662
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 13.54,
        "volume": 840855,
        "typical_volume": 605370.85,
        "trend": 13.853373,
        "fair_value": 13.35806,
        "relative_strength": -9.805204,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -67.506618,
        "energy": 44.125794,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.614354,
          13.639452,
          13.708903,
          13.77089
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 13.59,
        "volume": 617270,
        "typical_volume": 609328.55,
        "trend": 13.8414,
        "fair_value": 13.367796,
        "relative_strength": -10.123653,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -59.992241,
        "energy": 45.031379,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.603704,
          13.626966,
          13.693753,
          13.753898
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 13.58,
        "volume": 864377,
        "typical_volume": 615430.65,
        "trend": 13.829419,
        "fair_value": 13.37763,
        "relative_strength": -12.903662,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -59.190131,
        "energy": 44.93083,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.58896,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}