{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6e029cb-6ef1-4d31-a513-449fb77ea717", "symbol": "CWY", "name": "Cleanaway Waste Management Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 54.704, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 0.325, "architecture_energy": 2.561, "architecture_maturity": 17.846, "architecture_confidence": 79.714, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.49, "rotation_up": 32.77, "upward_expansion": 20.73, "deceleration": 32.32, "rotation_down": 25.85, "downward_expansion": 30.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.358, 2.362, 2.343, 2.344062 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.38, "trend_reference": 2.35829, "distance_from_trend": 0.009206, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.547016, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.065573, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.882852, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.001299, "excess_performance": -0.062406, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009206, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026601, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.065573, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055285, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088829, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038722, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001299, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.14892, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52083523, "relative_activity": 1.312857, "balance": 1.14892, "dry_up": 1.288085, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041047, "annualized_volatility": 0.171679, "from_high_reference": -0.184753, "from_low_reference": 0.11215 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.35829, "fair_value_reference": 2.547016, "structural_low": 2.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.019072, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.016704, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.075698, "worst_return": -0.131313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.043495, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.009003, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.091255, "worst_return": -0.098549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.019891, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.00153, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.101705, "worst_return": -0.065871, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043166, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033547, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026616, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035587, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00361, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"direction": -12.058069, "energy": 7.371686, "activity_lines": [ 2.356, 2.355818, 2.334215, 2.346346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.36, "volume": 63151875, "typical_volume": 40281387.2, "trend": 2.37191, "fair_value": 2.550051, "relative_strength": -5.396549, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.565629, "energy": 9.906767, "activity_lines": [ 2.355333, 2.359818, 2.336667, 2.345117 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.34, "volume": 33978710, "typical_volume": 39495436.25, "trend": 2.364434, "fair_value": 2.548525, "relative_strength": -7.947292, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.476433, "energy": 12.992931, "activity_lines": [ 2.348667, 2.358182, 2.337905, 2.343058 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.38, "volume": 52083523, "typical_volume": 39671878.8, "trend": 2.35829, "fair_value": 2.547016, "relative_strength": -8.882852, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.324878, "energy": 2.561491, "activity_lines": [ 2.358, 2.362, 2.343, 2.344062 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }