{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6e0e2c7-3ea1-4dbf-b669-71f16a416f9e", "symbol": "ALGO", "name": "21Shares Algorand ETP", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.707, "architecture_energy": 56.989, "architecture_maturity": 32.687, "architecture_confidence": 92.58, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.32, "rotation_up": 23.83, "upward_expansion": 9.85, "deceleration": 54.07, "rotation_down": 56.74, "downward_expansion": 83.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.7426, 0.746116, 0.808373, 0.824042 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.7564, "trend_reference": 0.849937, "distance_from_trend": -0.110051, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.62991, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.535925, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.93531, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.095648, "excess_performance": -0.148959, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.110051, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134678, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.535925, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170831, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.389353, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11101, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.095648, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.058217, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81206, "relative_activity": 9.486959, "balance": 1.058217, "dry_up": 2.37174, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059594, "annualized_volatility": 0.576491, "from_high_reference": -0.68631, "from_low_reference": 0.08569 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.849937, "fair_value_reference": 1.62991, "structural_low": 0.6967, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.056543, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": -0.041318, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.491914, "worst_return": -0.251153, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.075586, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.104454, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.510679, "worst_return": -0.378326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.356878, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.283342, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.365986, "worst_return": -0.21488, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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0.823007, 0.861086, 0.869778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.7357, "volume": 72926, "typical_volume": 4885.95, "trend": 0.889317, "fair_value": 1.638249, "relative_strength": -44.17175, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.310336, "energy": 87.010044, "activity_lines": [ 0.748707, 0.797538, 0.849843, 0.859208 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.7357, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4878.45, "trend": 0.881183, "fair_value": 1.63594, "relative_strength": -42.497243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.315176, "energy": 87.621053, "activity_lines": [ 0.740467, 0.776256, 0.838848, 0.849297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.7357, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4815.95, "trend": 0.874397, "fair_value": 1.63383, "relative_strength": -41.303108, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.849519, "energy": 82.588237, "activity_lines": [ 0.735373, 0.760804, 0.827907, 0.839911 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.7357, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4783.45, "trend": 0.863667, "fair_value": 1.631965, "relative_strength": -40.788247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.984879, "energy": 66.521921, "activity_lines": [ 0.736013, 0.749264, 0.817106, 0.830963 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.7564, "volume": 81206, "typical_volume": 8559.75, "trend": 0.849937, "fair_value": 1.62991, "relative_strength": -38.93531, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.707462, "energy": 56.988631, "activity_lines": [ 0.7426, 0.746116, 0.808373, 0.824042 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }