{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6e8175f-56ac-4071-b4a1-da2241085ed9", "symbol": "XDWT", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Information Technology UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.049, "architecture_energy": 42.545, "architecture_maturity": 68.551, "architecture_confidence": 95.607, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.83, "rotation_up": 39.32, "upward_expansion": 65.74, "deceleration": 94.14, "rotation_down": 29.02, "downward_expansion": 15.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 139.754666, 139.528909, 137.924237, 132.756795 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 146.279999, "trend_reference": 126.488333, "distance_from_trend": 0.15647, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 96.728874, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.512268, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.024698, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.287676, "excess_performance": 0.236441, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.15647, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064254, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.512268, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019449, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.110247, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025721, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.287676, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.022225, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116855, "relative_activity": 1.206125, "balance": 3.022225, "dry_up": 1.109435, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042931, "annualized_volatility": 0.241889, "from_high_reference": -0.002931, "from_low_reference": 0.420194 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 126.488333, "fair_value_reference": 96.728874, "structural_low": 103.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.005918, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009587, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.120291, "worst_return": -0.113273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.077968, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.040315, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.150181, "worst_return": -0.145082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.21226, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.169184, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.264687, "worst_return": -0.037373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 138.668003, 139.780183, 135.161714, 129.926624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 137.539993, "volume": 125671, "typical_volume": 93557.4, "trend": 124.959, "fair_value": 95.736598, "relative_strength": 6.374787, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.950702, "energy": 36.605432, "activity_lines": [ 138.019334, 139.298909, 136.010047, 130.779268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 134.860001, "volume": 144402, "typical_volume": 96257.6, "trend": 125.529333, "fair_value": 96.187528, "relative_strength": 2.901754, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.227202, "energy": 27.245328, "activity_lines": [ 136.919334, 138.332727, 136.482166, 131.418043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 146.279999, "volume": 116855, "typical_volume": 96884.65, "trend": 126.488333, "fair_value": 96.728874, "relative_strength": 11.024698, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.049445, "energy": 42.545245, "activity_lines": [ 139.754666, 139.528909, 137.924237, 132.756795 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }