{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6ea5c1c-269d-424a-9baf-7f5bb0246cb8", "symbol": "HTCO", "name": "Caravelle International Group", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.214, "architecture_energy": 63.233, "architecture_maturity": 50.26, "architecture_confidence": 88.954, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.17, "rotation_up": 26.05, "upward_expansion": 15.94, "deceleration": 37.28, "rotation_down": 51.7, "downward_expansion": 91.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.214, 3.396, 4.328857, 5.442301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.2, "trend_reference": 6.831667, "distance_from_trend": -0.531593, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.117818, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.832617, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -65.146467, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.676768, "excess_performance": -0.864221, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.531593, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.257747, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.832617, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12346, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.651465, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.226176, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.676768, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.467056, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 587349, "relative_activity": 0.152805, "balance": 3.467056, "dry_up": 0.133473, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.580363, "annualized_volatility": 1.524133, "from_high_reference": -0.943453, "from_low_reference": 0.748634 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.831667, "fair_value_reference": 19.117818, "structural_low": 1.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.088622, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.082623, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 1.438436, "worst_return": -0.329821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.574414, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.54158, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.899559, "worst_return": 0.008301, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 3.203624, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 3.073304, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 5.819763, "worst_return": 0.587484, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 3.792667, 4.840364, 6.562381, 7.381204 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 4.13, "volume": 1100087, "typical_volume": 3717981.15, "trend": 8.174197, "fair_value": 19.560174, "relative_strength": -56.560882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.279579, "energy": 28.032349, "activity_lines": [ 3.875333, 4.470545, 6.228714, 7.102955 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 3.77, "volume": 952349, "typical_volume": 3762096.85, "trend": 7.901867, "fair_value": 19.495318, "relative_strength": -60.455649, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.770753, "energy": 25.723416, "activity_lines": [ 3.938, 4.157818, 5.888238, 6.818813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.18, "volume": 797994, "typical_volume": 3799287.6, "trend": 7.6092, "fair_value": 19.424998, "relative_strength": -66.93703, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.149809, "energy": 26.035566, "activity_lines": [ 3.727333, 3.873818, 5.518381, 6.514176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.98, "volume": 457455, "typical_volume": 3818777.1, "trend": 7.427867, "fair_value": 19.344741, "relative_strength": -67.430576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.947444, "energy": 26.325169, "activity_lines": [ 3.431333, 3.639273, 5.160333, 6.215518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.09, "volume": 372229, "typical_volume": 3832003.15, "trend": 7.232, "fair_value": 19.26519, "relative_strength": -65.385396, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.974433, "energy": 26.410291, "activity_lines": [ 3.238667, 3.476727, 4.843476, 5.935656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.45, "volume": 635126, "typical_volume": 3847265.3, "trend": 7.065, "fair_value": 19.190174, "relative_strength": -60.992331, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.943664, "energy": 56.519669, "activity_lines": [ 3.245333, 3.439273, 4.585571, 5.691656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.2, "volume": 587349, "typical_volume": 3843779.25, "trend": 6.831667, "fair_value": 19.117818, "relative_strength": -65.146467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.214044, "energy": 63.233016, "activity_lines": [ 3.214, 3.396, 4.328857, 5.442301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }