{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6f8d855-838f-488c-a56a-8c9f68b9bc3a", "symbol": "DAXESG", "name": "Amundi DAX 50 ESG UCITS ETF DR - EUR (C)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.197, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.322, "architecture_energy": 68.246, "architecture_maturity": 52.831, "architecture_confidence": 74.081, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 58.76, "upward_expansion": 85.19, "deceleration": 64.96, "rotation_down": 27.28, "downward_expansion": 11.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 92.248667, 91.803819, 89.880763, 88.184173 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 94.260002, "trend_reference": 86.488668, "distance_from_trend": 0.089854, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 73.13718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.288811, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.103511, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.107898, "excess_performance": -0.062993, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089854, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037997, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.288811, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084537, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041035, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052047, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107898, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.190278, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 912, "relative_activity": 0.622993, "balance": 1.190278, "dry_up": 1.902965, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019839, "annualized_volatility": 0.150185, "from_high_reference": -0.002645, "from_low_reference": 0.237983 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 86.488668, "fair_value_reference": 73.13718, "structural_low": 76.139999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.014629, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.000454, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.110514, "worst_return": -0.107129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.03358, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.017988, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.100617, "worst_return": -0.041894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.09532, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.044981, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.151373, "worst_return": 0.02827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 91.260002, "volume": 414, "typical_volume": 1326.0, "trend": 85.914001, "fair_value": 72.684936, "relative_strength": -4.218403, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.612634, "energy": 60.353302, "activity_lines": [ 91.230001, 90.942364, 88.695905, 87.300044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 91.529999, "volume": 2543, "typical_volume": 1428.9, "trend": 86.172001, "fair_value": 72.901218, "relative_strength": -4.365662, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.573262, "energy": 56.538724, "activity_lines": [ 91.302667, 91.161819, 89.182715, 87.662366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 94.260002, "volume": 912, "typical_volume": 1463.9, "trend": 86.488668, "fair_value": 73.13718, "relative_strength": -4.103511, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.321586, "energy": 68.246175, "activity_lines": [ 92.248667, 91.803819, 89.880763, 88.184173 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }