{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6fae6f6-f308-4719-9bda-6ef81e0bb3f2", "symbol": "WEED", "name": "Canopy Growth Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.701, "architecture_energy": 50.471, "architecture_maturity": 16.379, "architecture_confidence": 93.001, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.3, "rotation_up": 16.01, "upward_expansion": 9.77, "deceleration": 41.05, "rotation_down": 58.27, "downward_expansion": 83.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.324667, 1.342727, 1.391048, 1.411613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.37, "trend_reference": 1.449333, "distance_from_trend": -0.054738, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.714103, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.709383, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.42153, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.092715, "excess_performance": -0.213137, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.054738, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082894, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.709383, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002856, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.254215, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035415, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.092715, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.981074, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3655800, "relative_activity": 0.566743, "balance": 0.981074, "dry_up": 0.566639, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081415, "annualized_volatility": 0.405077, "from_high_reference": -0.582317, "from_low_reference": 0.161017 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.449333, "fair_value_reference": 4.714103, "structural_low": 1.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.084694, "positive_rate": 0.288889, "directional_follow_through": 0.711111, "median_excess_return": -0.090948, "regime_survival": 0.844444, "best_return": 1.951613, "worst_return": -0.433333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.19078, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.242644, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 1.219745, "worst_return": -0.632258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.412162, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.461176, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.62069, "worst_return": -0.76129, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.63622, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.235294, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.187919, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.388664, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": 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"fair_value": 4.825833, "relative_strength": -25.396383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.88569, "energy": 41.877545, "activity_lines": [ 1.377333, 1.402182, 1.432095, 1.454688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.34, "volume": 3598200, "typical_volume": 7045185.0, "trend": 1.49, "fair_value": 4.801731, "relative_strength": -26.494551, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.602707, "energy": 42.467774, "activity_lines": [ 1.364, 1.386545, 1.422667, 1.443505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.27, "volume": 3659300, "typical_volume": 6815075.0, "trend": 1.473, "fair_value": 4.769487, "relative_strength": -29.999139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.096487, "energy": 57.145688, "activity_lines": [ 1.332, 1.361818, 1.407524, 1.429312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.29, "volume": 3707200, "typical_volume": 6721185.0, "trend": 1.461333, "fair_value": 4.739295, "relative_strength": -28.139005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.508971, "energy": 61.405255, "activity_lines": [ 1.314, 1.343455, 1.39519, 1.417505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.37, "volume": 3655800, "typical_volume": 6450540.0, "trend": 1.449333, "fair_value": 4.714103, "relative_strength": -25.42153, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.700563, "energy": 50.470543, "activity_lines": [ 1.324667, 1.342727, 1.391048, 1.411613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }