{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6fb477c-6cae-4c1b-86b1-58dbd62e8a3b", "symbol": "CI2U", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi MSCI India Swap II UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 74.663, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 11.829, "architecture_energy": 17.715, "architecture_maturity": 13.376, "architecture_confidence": 54.49, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.74, "rotation_up": 37.53, "upward_expansion": 36.36, "deceleration": 30.47, "rotation_down": 21.33, "downward_expansion": 44.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 931.663985, 927.563522, 922.072791, 922.734841 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 948.599976, "trend_reference": 932.559106, "distance_from_trend": 0.017201, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 980.96298, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.032991, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.577189, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.059447, "excess_performance": -0.112758, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017201, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036498, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.032991, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007883, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085772, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004118, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.059447, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.757951, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50, "relative_activity": 0.261575, "balance": 1.757951, "dry_up": 0.924666, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021708, "annualized_volatility": 0.194726, "from_high_reference": -0.106931, "from_low_reference": 0.132495 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 932.559106, "fair_value_reference": 980.96298, "structural_low": 837.619507, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.011347, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.008333, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.030773, "worst_return": -0.110934, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.021072, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.015246, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.029945, "worst_return": -0.079664, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.043333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.072558, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.04186, "worst_return": -0.058982, "sufficient": false 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{ "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007365, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.006124, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042232, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042242, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017326, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029777, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01092, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034261, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020658, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 806.97113, "volume": 111, "typical_volume": 99.6, "trend": 769.418573, "fair_value": 762.741659, "relative_strength": -0.375677, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"typical_volume": 191.15, "trend": 932.559106, "fair_value": 980.96298, "relative_strength": -8.577189, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 11.828605, "energy": 17.715465, "activity_lines": [ 931.663985, 927.563522, 922.072791, 922.734841 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }