{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a70e2664-5c19-404d-8626-dbe0994d2fc3", "symbol": "NILS", "name": "Nilsson Special Vehicles AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.464, "architecture_energy": 58.463, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.894, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.44, "rotation_up": 66.59, "upward_expansion": 87.06, "deceleration": 43.88, "rotation_down": 13.49, "downward_expansion": 11.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.221333, 4.000727, 3.808286, 3.688946 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.72, "trend_reference": 3.465333, "distance_from_trend": 0.362062, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.413192, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.069521, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 35.163883, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.722628, "excess_performance": 0.661133, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.362062, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131969, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.069521, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.316505, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.351639, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.22472, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.722628, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.010363, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31538, "relative_activity": 1.112475, "balance": 1.010363, "dry_up": 0.725174, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149609, "annualized_volatility": 0.960984, "from_high_reference": -0.417284, "from_low_reference": 1.471204 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.465333, "fair_value_reference": 4.413192, "structural_low": 2.34, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.065217, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.088657, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.472, "worst_return": -0.203125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.013663, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05722, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.376, "worst_return": -0.248447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.180217, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.119301, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.476, "worst_return": -0.279302, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.264706, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.008, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.157534, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.141667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021739, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", 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"stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.929846, "energy": 38.418299, "activity_lines": [ 3.785333, 3.650909, 3.609524, 3.506237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.12, "volume": 4726, "typical_volume": 28265.0, "trend": 3.336667, "fair_value": 4.423705, "relative_strength": 24.591409, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.336066, "energy": 52.794798, "activity_lines": [ 3.924, 3.750545, 3.661714, 3.560215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.0, "volume": 23791, "typical_volume": 27733.2, "trend": 3.388, "fair_value": 4.417295, "relative_strength": 18.278546, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.308089, "energy": 49.074658, "activity_lines": [ 3.965333, 3.813091, 3.702, 3.603011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.72, "volume": 31538, "typical_volume": 28349.4, "trend": 3.465333, "fair_value": 4.413192, "relative_strength": 35.163883, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.463873, "energy": 58.463099, "activity_lines": [ 4.221333, 4.000727, 3.808286, 3.688946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }