{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "a70f95b8-dc26-4a84-b6fc-b1a85e191ecc",
    "symbol": "DAF",
    "name": "Discovery Alaska Limited",
    "exchange": "ASX",
    "country": "AU",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^AXJO",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -65.814,
    "architecture_energy": 67.651,
    "architecture_maturity": 66.319,
    "architecture_confidence": 92.919,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 10.69,
        "rotation_up": 28.64,
        "upward_expansion": 12.0,
        "deceleration": 55.85,
        "rotation_down": 54.85,
        "downward_expansion": 83.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.01,
        0.0104,
        0.012219,
        0.013652
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 0.01,
    "trend_reference": 0.0154,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.350649,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 0.015385,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.35,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -39.628549,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.444444,
    "excess_performance": -0.50815,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.350649,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.111538,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.35,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.240411,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.396285,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.361822,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.444444,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.0,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": 0.0,
      "balance": 0.0,
      "dry_up": 0.68661,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.076923,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.613064,
      "from_high_reference": -0.62963,
      "from_low_reference": 0.111111
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.0154,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.015385,
      "structural_low": 0.009,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 31,
        "median_return": 0.0,
        "positive_rate": 0.354839,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.483871,
        "median_excess_return": -0.014867,
        "regime_survival": 0.83871,
        "best_return": 0.8,
        "worst_return": -0.333333,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.073232,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.007926,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.527778,
        "worst_return": -0.352941,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.036946,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.051187,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.805556,
        "worst_return": -0.294118,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.244318,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": 0.117061,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.547619,
        "worst_return": -0.448276,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.25,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.3,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2025-05-02",
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        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-22",
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        "return": -0.1875,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-09-12",
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        "return": 0.153846,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 0.015949,
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 217710.05,
        "trend": 0.016767,
        "fair_value": 0.015827,
        "relative_strength": -37.646878,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -86.135008,
        "energy": 95.119494,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.010667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 0.01,
        "volume": 368571,
        "typical_volume": 210515.0,
        "trend": 0.0165,
        "fair_value": 0.015699,
        "relative_strength": -37.426671,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -76.397302,
        "energy": 91.733825,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.0102,
          0.011655,
          0.013548,
          0.014822
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.01,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 210515.0,
        "trend": 0.015967,
        "fair_value": 0.01559,
        "relative_strength": -36.780061,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -68.653229,
        "energy": 89.001603,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.01,
          0.011145,
          0.013062,
          0.014402
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.01,
        "volume": 167585,
        "typical_volume": 202975.6,
        "trend": 0.015667,
        "fair_value": 0.015487,
        "relative_strength": -37.964341,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -67.273658,
        "energy": 88.4174,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.01,
          0.010727,
          0.012619,
          0.014017
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.01,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 195218.4,
        "trend": 0.0154,
        "fair_value": 0.015385,
        "relative_strength": -39.628549,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.813772,
        "energy": 67.651288,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.01,
          0.0104,
          0.012219,
          0.013652
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}