{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a716c2ae-9eeb-4ad3-8a1e-217212cafbe0", "symbol": "CVX", "name": "Chevron Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.166, "architecture_energy": 35.203, "architecture_maturity": 18.099, "architecture_confidence": 78.651, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.16, "rotation_up": 63.78, "upward_expansion": 46.94, "deceleration": 48.79, "rotation_down": 18.75, "downward_expansion": 12.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 3315.315983, 3218.562358, 3209.03934, 3239.670466 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3250.0, "trend_reference": 3234.659253, "distance_from_trend": 0.004743, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2899.477084, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.120892, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.76535, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.039724, "excess_performance": 0.09439, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004743, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043362, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.120892, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027969, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.037654, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086321, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039724, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 16.087516, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 233, "relative_activity": 0.034465, "balance": 16.087516, "dry_up": 2.116285, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045282, "annualized_volatility": 0.322814, "from_high_reference": -0.170262, "from_low_reference": 0.230543 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3234.659253, "fair_value_reference": 2899.477084, "structural_low": 2920.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.003513, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025889, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.076761, "worst_return": -0.182018, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.02183, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033339, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.171332, "worst_return": -0.10157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.026115, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.156224, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.515906, "worst_return": -0.15853, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.154206, "energy": 15.305175, "activity_lines": [ 3207.803337, 3156.142552, 3197.357768, 3223.835246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3419.179932, "volume": 4470, "typical_volume": 7054.1, "trend": 3223.453003, "fair_value": 2896.278564, "relative_strength": 9.128597, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.088022, "energy": 34.046463, "activity_lines": [ 3304.328646, 3203.815994, 3210.995328, 3237.957757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3250.0, "volume": 233, "typical_volume": 6760.55, "trend": 3234.659253, "fair_value": 2899.477084, "relative_strength": 3.76535, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.165731, "energy": 35.203464, "activity_lines": [ 3315.315983, 3218.562358, 3209.03934, 3239.670466 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }