{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a718d8ab-d3f0-4a39-893f-9b6d342deeeb", "symbol": "CVIE", "name": "MORGAN STANLEY ETF TRUST CALVERT INTERNATIONAL RESPONSIBLE INDEX", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.326, "architecture_energy": 30.276, "architecture_maturity": 50.843, "architecture_confidence": 86.856, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.06, "rotation_up": 32.08, "upward_expansion": 55.96, "deceleration": 90.4, "rotation_down": 26.5, "downward_expansion": 19.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 83.28398, 83.395123, 82.457081, 80.862188 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 85.24, "trend_reference": 79.032221, "distance_from_trend": 0.078547, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 60.97047, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.398054, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.194667, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.111113, "excess_performance": -0.014512, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078547, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059398, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.398054, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001166, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021947, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016616, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111113, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.209227, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 151479, "relative_activity": 1.317136, "balance": 1.209227, "dry_up": 1.442775, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034995, "annualized_volatility": 0.216813, "from_high_reference": -0.013997, "from_low_reference": 0.330867 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 79.032221, "fair_value_reference": 60.97047, "structural_low": 69.7538, "invalidation": "A 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"up", "direction": 55.144507, "energy": 39.958151, "activity_lines": [ 83.407223, 83.309437, 81.429486, 79.925109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 81.6017, "volume": 122499, "typical_volume": 115198.2, "trend": 78.304229, "fair_value": 60.505522, "relative_strength": 2.684251, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.664246, "energy": 28.440613, "activity_lines": [ 82.626253, 83.097876, 81.664844, 80.159478 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 82.6062, "volume": 103227, "typical_volume": 114272.15, "trend": 78.649979, "fair_value": 60.728946, "relative_strength": 2.655363, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.387215, "energy": 22.796767, "activity_lines": [ 82.47564, 83.018337, 81.959992, 80.437025 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 85.24, "volume": 151479, "typical_volume": 115006.35, "trend": 79.032221, "fair_value": 60.97047, "relative_strength": 2.194667, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.325554, "energy": 30.276382, "activity_lines": [ 83.28398, 83.395123, 82.457081, 80.862188 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }