{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a719491c-90d3-4a3d-b8b9-5dbeee785a99", "symbol": "TPHG", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Japan Topix UCITS ETF-C GBP Hedged", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.628, "architecture_energy": 47.95, "architecture_maturity": 86.258, "architecture_confidence": 69.675, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.22, "rotation_up": 48.21, "upward_expansion": 75.85, "deceleration": 68.61, "rotation_down": 28.48, "downward_expansion": 11.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 18635.6, 18610.890909, 18316.161905, 17974.275269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19020.0, "trend_reference": 17551.3, "distance_from_trend": 0.08368, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12844.605763, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.480777, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.788629, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.115739, "excess_performance": 0.064504, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08368, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065217, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.480777, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014765, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.077886, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047515, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115739, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.138102, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1333, "relative_activity": 0.825106, "balance": 2.138102, "dry_up": 1.12098, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027039, "annualized_volatility": 0.18917, "from_high_reference": -0.001868, "from_low_reference": 0.404934 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17551.3, "fair_value_reference": 12844.605763, "structural_low": 15653.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.015146, "positive_rate": 0.613636, "directional_follow_through": 0.613636, "median_excess_return": 0.008016, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.085696, "worst_return": -0.101106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.050314, "positive_rate": 0.866667, "directional_follow_through": 0.866667, "median_excess_return": 0.029284, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.170012, "worst_return": -0.041774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.095238, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.058505, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.26856, "worst_return": -0.097871, "sufficient": true }, { 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17259.6, "fair_value": 12660.743584, "relative_strength": 7.311163, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.811332, "energy": 57.513734, "activity_lines": [ 18580.6, 18474.272727, 18042.333333, 17723.593548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18696.0, "volume": 1132, "typical_volume": 2150.6, "trend": 17369.233333, "fair_value": 12721.749994, "relative_strength": 8.255421, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.161444, "energy": 56.995231, "activity_lines": [ 18601.0, 18539.254545, 18146.833333, 17816.264516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18259.0, "volume": 3048, "typical_volume": 1654.3, "trend": 17460.6, "fair_value": 12781.102558, "relative_strength": 4.109294, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.214912, "energy": 39.385349, "activity_lines": [ 18484.6, 18508.945455, 18199.671429, 17873.668817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19020.0, "volume": 1333, "typical_volume": 1615.55, "trend": 17551.3, "fair_value": 12844.605763, "relative_strength": 7.788629, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.627815, "energy": 47.94963, "activity_lines": [ 18635.6, 18610.890909, 18316.161905, 17974.275269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }