{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a71d6810-6cf8-46c6-a980-4e3f6c45ee7b", "symbol": "9408", "name": "Albilad MSCI Saudi Growth ETF", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.939, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.876, "architecture_energy": 63.499, "architecture_maturity": 5.144, "architecture_confidence": 79.86, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.71, "rotation_up": 9.25, "upward_expansion": 13.9, "deceleration": 37.35, "rotation_down": 71.48, "downward_expansion": 89.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.961333, 8.051455, 8.12781, 8.135419 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.02, "trend_reference": 8.136333, "distance_from_trend": -0.014298, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.476434, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.15369, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.303857, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.066356, "excess_performance": -0.01808, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014298, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009938, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.15369, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018788, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023039, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008712, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066356, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.619368, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34979, "relative_activity": 1.345885, "balance": 0.619368, "dry_up": 1.137849, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025609, "annualized_volatility": 0.136163, "from_high_reference": -0.134844, "from_low_reference": 0.075067 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.136333, "fair_value_reference": 9.476434, "structural_low": 7.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039397, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002193, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001098, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002281, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039906, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.043742, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031325, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007481, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022959, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-02-02", "close": 9.91, "volume": 75605, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] 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"Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.942136, "energy": 4.266698, "activity_lines": [ 8.198, 8.2, 8.205476, 8.183312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.0, "volume": 27372, "typical_volume": 29089.35, "trend": 8.140333, "fair_value": 9.513016, "relative_strength": -2.031524, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.866804, "energy": 22.150025, "activity_lines": [ 8.114, 8.163455, 8.190476, 8.173763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.96, "volume": 33757, "typical_volume": 29382.1, "trend": 8.139667, "fair_value": 9.500787, "relative_strength": -2.987354, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.570856, "energy": 42.735371, "activity_lines": [ 8.040667, 8.125636, 8.172048, 8.162129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.84, "volume": 22181, "typical_volume": 26166.3, "trend": 8.134333, "fair_value": 9.487813, "relative_strength": -2.369332, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.959892, "energy": 62.494388, "activity_lines": [ 7.957333, 8.070364, 8.141429, 8.142796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.02, "volume": 34979, "typical_volume": 25989.6, "trend": 8.136333, "fair_value": 9.476434, "relative_strength": -2.303857, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.876275, "energy": 63.498968, "activity_lines": [ 7.961333, 8.051455, 8.12781, 8.135419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }