{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a722e365-537d-4d3b-bced-4f6e2dba6777", "symbol": "002119", "name": "Ningbo Kangqiang Electronics Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 87.237, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.913, "architecture_energy": 29.42, "architecture_maturity": 60.245, "architecture_confidence": 61.992, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.12, "rotation_up": 14.7, "upward_expansion": 24.54, "deceleration": 76.16, "rotation_down": 63.63, "downward_expansion": 35.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.168667, 27.181636, 26.765246, 25.669068 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.040001, "trend_reference": 24.420052, "distance_from_trend": -0.015563, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.16533, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.487133, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.357866, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.084991, "excess_performance": -0.09239, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015563, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.194414, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.487133, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008231, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.103579, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123092, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.084991, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.160236, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 233268387, "relative_activity": 1.339645, "balance": 1.160236, "dry_up": 1.217771, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.21669, "annualized_volatility": 0.801188, "from_high_reference": -0.410495, "from_low_reference": 0.566886 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.420052, "fair_value_reference": 16.16533, "structural_low": 19.065863, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.059774, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.025887, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.375215, "worst_return": -0.169388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.113294, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.127567, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.620806, "worst_return": -0.101116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.09276, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.129372, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.114482, "worst_return": -0.12468, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.104507, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.002566, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.533013, "worst_return": -0.159782, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017964, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074826, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014414, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088715, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.827264, "energy": 45.108267, "activity_lines": [ 31.516, 30.969272, 27.650213, 26.025773 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.08, "volume": 236806915, "typical_volume": 165634263.15, "trend": 24.041078, "fair_value": 16.059632, "relative_strength": 5.552198, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.195049, "energy": 14.962727, "activity_lines": [ 27.780667, 29.656727, 27.345314, 25.912153 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.4, "volume": 205372305, "typical_volume": 171474707.9, "trend": 24.166737, "fair_value": 16.104892, "relative_strength": -1.066197, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.809023, "energy": 25.370668, "activity_lines": [ 24.314, 28.059818, 26.879847, 25.677244 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.040001, "volume": 233268387, "typical_volume": 174126953.45, "trend": 24.420052, "fair_value": 16.16533, "relative_strength": 10.357866, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.913195, "energy": 29.420183, "activity_lines": [ 23.168667, 27.181636, 26.765246, 25.669068 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }