{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a7304b63-7b8e-454c-96ba-cf7948958e2c", "symbol": "GDS", "name": "Ramsay G\u00e9n\u00e9rale de Sant\u00e9 SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 82.723, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.501, "architecture_energy": 19.305, "architecture_maturity": 45.553, "architecture_confidence": 87.059, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.28, "rotation_up": 23.52, "upward_expansion": 54.34, "deceleration": 90.22, "rotation_down": 29.28, "downward_expansion": 18.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.923333, 11.002727, 10.89019, 10.773634 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.9, "trend_reference": 10.659, "distance_from_trend": 0.02261, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.080449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.166695, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.571062, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.009091, "excess_performance": -0.062402, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02261, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067394, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.166695, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083547, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005711, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012254, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009091, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.047987, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 671, "relative_activity": 0.414658, "balance": 2.047987, "dry_up": 0.872574, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038109, "annualized_volatility": 0.218136, "from_high_reference": -0.052174, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.659, "fair_value_reference": 13.080449, "structural_low": 9.52, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.021053, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.022985, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.163968, "worst_return": -0.076923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.037915, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.009517, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.142105, "worst_return": -0.2175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.040385, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.034649, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.210526, "worst_return": -0.243961, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.073489, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.149366, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.178947, "worst_return": -0.236715, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091483, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034884, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.145228, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065385, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04186, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086239, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078431, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109091, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121951, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022727, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009091, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 20.6, "volume": 444, "typical_volume": 3414.65, "trend": 19.89, "fair_value": 20.059936, "relative_strength": 0.039229, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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11.05, "volume": 76, "typical_volume": 2056.0, "trend": 10.347, "fair_value": 13.409936, "relative_strength": 3.870756, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.613365, "energy": 51.404512, "activity_lines": [ 11.153333, 11.049636, 10.734, 10.618065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.2, "volume": 296, "typical_volume": 1729.05, "trend": 10.411667, "fair_value": 13.350321, "relative_strength": 7.475762, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.059454, "energy": 44.550556, "activity_lines": [ 11.17, 11.113636, 10.788905, 10.673097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.95, "volume": 2277, "typical_volume": 1674.5, "trend": 10.482, "fair_value": 13.279487, "relative_strength": 5.208693, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.78834, "energy": 32.972643, "activity_lines": [ 11.09, 11.108182, 10.819048, 10.707828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.75, "volume": 257, "typical_volume": 1592.65, "trend": 10.546333, "fair_value": 13.208013, "relative_strength": 3.00388, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.49626, "energy": 23.013429, "activity_lines": [ 10.97, 11.056364, 10.830381, 10.725118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.0, "volume": 2443, "typical_volume": 1673.8, "trend": 10.601667, "fair_value": 13.141987, "relative_strength": 3.845645, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.286522, "energy": 19.965874, "activity_lines": [ 10.953333, 11.041818, 10.866, 10.754387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.9, "volume": 671, "typical_volume": 1618.2, "trend": 10.659, "fair_value": 13.080449, "relative_strength": 0.571062, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.500944, "energy": 19.305185, "activity_lines": [ 10.923333, 11.002727, 10.89019, 10.773634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }