{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a7322ebb-eecb-4d8b-9581-1a51e72efc6d", "symbol": "CMEG", "name": "CME Group Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.612, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.796, "architecture_energy": 25.683, "architecture_maturity": 70.382, "architecture_confidence": 71.88, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.23, "rotation_up": 35.22, "upward_expansion": 22.47, "deceleration": 44.14, "rotation_down": 22.54, "downward_expansion": 56.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 225.5, 219.234727, 225.228927, 232.549737 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 229.800003, "trend_reference": 239.943384, "distance_from_trend": -0.042274, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 212.56338, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.081089, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.761312, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.084668, "excess_performance": -0.258915, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042274, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021073, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.081089, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067079, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.207613, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049853, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.084668, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.460526, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45, "relative_activity": 1.717557, "balance": 5.460526, "dry_up": 1.39313, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061494, "annualized_volatility": 0.307681, "from_high_reference": -0.186282, "from_low_reference": 0.177013 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 239.943384, "fair_value_reference": 212.56338, "structural_low": 195.240005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.02033, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.0167, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.133657, "worst_return": -0.025107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.072079, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.078451, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.243817, "worst_return": -0.048541, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.236267, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.094767, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.32661, "worst_return": -0.163611, "sufficient": true }, { 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209.444, 221.061408, 233.418343, 238.637968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 208.350006, "volume": 314, "typical_volume": 20.5, "trend": 240.475153, "fair_value": 211.069053, "relative_strength": -28.475464, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.303657, "energy": 85.708069, "activity_lines": [ 207.624669, 217.256021, 230.067602, 236.517306 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 213.899994, "volume": 99, "typical_volume": 23.85, "trend": 239.994668, "fair_value": 211.447694, "relative_strength": -24.58541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.480761, "energy": 81.255175, "activity_lines": [ 208.508667, 215.087402, 227.491213, 234.80278 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 221.449997, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 23.95, "trend": 239.644757, "fair_value": 211.799469, "relative_strength": -22.452287, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.072735, "energy": 49.858732, "activity_lines": [ 212.975999, 214.723383, 225.885689, 233.606349 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 233.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 23.95, "trend": 239.782731, "fair_value": 212.192365, "relative_strength": -17.716159, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.073554, "energy": 27.174123, "activity_lines": [ 221.079999, 217.140144, 225.651593, 233.193784 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 229.800003, "volume": 45, "typical_volume": 26.2, "trend": 239.943384, "fair_value": 212.56338, "relative_strength": -20.761312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.795768, "energy": 25.683391, "activity_lines": [ 225.5, 219.234727, 225.228927, 232.549737 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }