{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a733e45c-de31-4322-bacd-a870a4558a23", "symbol": "SB10", "name": "UBS ETF SICAV - SBI Foreign AAA-BBB 5-10 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.099, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.559, "architecture_energy": 72.819, "architecture_maturity": 5.242, "architecture_confidence": 84.038, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.3, "rotation_up": 11.66, "upward_expansion": 19.02, "deceleration": 34.24, "rotation_down": 75.2, "downward_expansion": 92.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.8788, 14.952582, 15.01179, 15.05847 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.87, "trend_reference": 15.104546, "distance_from_trend": -0.015528, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.427234, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.03069, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.348782, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.022706, "excess_performance": -0.193598, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015528, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002108, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.03069, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034408, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153488, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041779, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.022706, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.784121, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2855, "relative_activity": 0.565879, "balance": 0.784121, "dry_up": 0.714732, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009549, "annualized_volatility": 0.044708, "from_high_reference": -0.043607, "from_low_reference": 0.01051 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.104546, "fair_value_reference": 14.427234, "structural_low": 14.802, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.006509, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015743, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.058545, "worst_return": -0.045128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.04514, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.032787, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.062278, "worst_return": -0.07886, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.038595, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.062424, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.102621, "worst_return": -0.024729, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2026-06-26", "close": 15.162, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 6340.7, "trend": 15.079931, "fair_value": 14.353963, "relative_strength": -12.149805, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.357474, "energy": 12.175468, "activity_lines": [ 15.0776, 15.085855, 15.107095, 15.115389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 15.15, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6176.0, "trend": 15.08904, "fair_value": 14.369201, "relative_strength": -14.368628, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.121262, "energy": 11.685762, "activity_lines": [ 15.098667, 15.096509, 15.105971, 15.11991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.03, "volume": 6663, "typical_volume": 6300.75, "trend": 15.098333, "fair_value": 14.382263, "relative_strength": -14.29283, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.87244, "energy": 11.913072, "activity_lines": [ 15.082933, 15.083745, 15.094324, 15.116101 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.976, "volume": 2261, "typical_volume": 6241.8, "trend": 15.104564, "fair_value": 14.394055, "relative_strength": -12.990829, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.643745, "energy": 16.411015, "activity_lines": [ 15.052, 15.062618, 15.079086, 15.108208 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.83, "volume": 3898, "typical_volume": 4844.6, "trend": 15.103471, "fair_value": 14.4047, "relative_strength": -13.309483, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.293728, "energy": 63.405984, "activity_lines": [ 14.973733, 15.018691, 15.052543, 15.090494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.84, "volume": 5410, "typical_volume": 5058.1, "trend": 15.102911, "fair_value": 14.415927, "relative_strength": -13.423419, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.189465, "energy": 73.190541, "activity_lines": [ 14.910533, 14.980945, 15.029581, 15.073496 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.87, "volume": 2855, "typical_volume": 5045.25, "trend": 15.104546, "fair_value": 14.427234, "relative_strength": -15.348782, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.559088, "energy": 72.818978, "activity_lines": [ 14.8788, 14.952582, 15.01179, 15.05847 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }