{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a734aa1e-eca4-4731-b96d-3202bd5bd5df", "symbol": "MTF-F50", "name": "Migdal Mutual Funds Ltd. - MTF SAL (4A) NIKKEI 225 Currency-Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.807, "architecture_energy": 67.291, "architecture_maturity": 91.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.332, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 29.84, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.96, "rotation_down": 55.99, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.101333, 72.617455, 1801.081714, 2927.596473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 71.83, "trend_reference": 4170.687333, "distance_from_trend": -0.982777, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4116.286026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.98255, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.594751, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.987958, "excess_performance": -1.016858, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.982777, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.300799, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.98255, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.598598, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.985948, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.999888, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.987958, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.632738, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 186243, "relative_activity": 3.817703, "balance": 0.632738, "dry_up": 1.633792, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.968408, "annualized_volatility": 6.388528, "from_high_reference": -0.990113, "from_low_reference": 0.06636 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4170.687333, "fair_value_reference": 4116.286026, "structural_low": 67.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.011506, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.012099, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.115568, "worst_return": -0.110899, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.087219, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.026963, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.189621, "worst_return": -0.073117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.025118, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.015014, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.475175, "worst_return": -0.04386, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 40960.1, "trend": 4533.861333, "fair_value": 4156.761795, "relative_strength": -98.699837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.58305, "energy": 68.71217, "activity_lines": [ 72.490667, 452.778, 2491.281857, 3491.88729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 69.95, "volume": 87649, "typical_volume": 41827.8, "trend": 4354.426333, "fair_value": 4136.761474, "relative_strength": -98.656327, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.361555, "energy": 68.190835, "activity_lines": [ 71.288, 203.462727, 2132.454048, 3203.893011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.83, "volume": 186243, "typical_volume": 48784.05, "trend": 4170.687333, "fair_value": 4116.286026, "relative_strength": -98.594751, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.807405, "energy": 67.291319, "activity_lines": [ 71.101333, 72.617455, 1801.081714, 2927.596473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }