{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a7386dca-4518-46a2-a100-864d0f0aa265", "symbol": "00851", "name": "Taishin SG Global AI and Robotics Select ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.922, "architecture_energy": 30.605, "architecture_maturity": 67.28, "architecture_confidence": 78.758, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.73, "rotation_up": 30.98, "upward_expansion": 60.58, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 27.74, "downward_expansion": 21.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 69.686667, 70.356364, 68.771191, 66.132581 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 71.050003, "trend_reference": 62.96, "distance_from_trend": 0.128494, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.625187, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.491858, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.398124, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.200169, "excess_performance": -0.179143, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.128494, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088206, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.491858, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063739, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103981, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099913, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.200169, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.432745, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27494, "relative_activity": 0.409186, "balance": 4.432745, "dry_up": 0.385128, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046879, "annualized_volatility": 0.267885, "from_high_reference": -0.039865, "from_low_reference": 0.504608 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.96, "fair_value_reference": 47.625187, "structural_low": 52.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.013304, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.011744, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.15505, "worst_return": -0.102793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.07491, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.043801, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.247359, "worst_return": -0.16989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.237238, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.0041, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.266309, "worst_return": -0.199336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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64.664301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 70.150002, "volume": 20079, "typical_volume": 76129.05, "trend": 62.091667, "fair_value": 47.158553, "relative_strength": -11.26062, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.352495, "energy": 47.876904, "activity_lines": [ 70.37, 70.813636, 67.919286, 65.217312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.699997, "volume": 29504, "typical_volume": 68668.9, "trend": 62.471667, "fair_value": 47.3825, "relative_strength": -12.855498, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.921425, "energy": 31.816043, "activity_lines": [ 69.359999, 70.3, 68.211666, 65.57914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.050003, "volume": 27494, "typical_volume": 67191.95, "trend": 62.96, "fair_value": 47.625187, "relative_strength": -10.398124, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.922333, "energy": 30.605106, "activity_lines": [ 69.686667, 70.356364, 68.771191, 66.132581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }