{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a7396311-4437-4f96-bcb5-0f76f99845a2", "symbol": "RKLB", "name": "Rocket Lab USA Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.455, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.345, "architecture_energy": 47.245, "architecture_maturity": 6.507, "architecture_confidence": 66.11, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.02, "rotation_up": 14.77, "upward_expansion": 23.87, "deceleration": 51.28, "rotation_down": 65.05, "downward_expansion": 51.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.130667, 79.286364, 90.549714, 88.299699 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 82.83, "trend_reference": 85.509333, "distance_from_trend": -0.031334, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.512692, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.471601, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.723832, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.145326, "excess_performance": -0.042127, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031334, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119039, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.471601, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.605959, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007238, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.541122, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.145326, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.27316, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 96698698, "relative_activity": 0.798956, "balance": 1.27316, "dry_up": 0.780424, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.251358, "annualized_volatility": 1.010407, "from_high_reference": -0.451457, "from_low_reference": 1.204685 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 85.509333, "fair_value_reference": 33.512692, "structural_low": 56.132, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.024444, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.016191, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.404398, "worst_return": -0.032538, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.689188, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.485166, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.178375, "worst_return": 0.2, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.137555, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.816213, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.430666, "worst_return": -0.155556, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027256, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.306192, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.223375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.181716, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.44022, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112515, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.098555, "energy": 18.291382, "activity_lines": [ 91.835333, 102.590727, 98.32981, 92.470452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 67.62, "volume": 103575437, "typical_volume": 123472460.9, "trend": 86.169333, "fair_value": 32.285513, "relative_strength": -13.633998, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.197888, "energy": 32.217662, "activity_lines": [ 82.664, 94.972, 96.150381, 91.267484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 63.91, "volume": 92144829, "typical_volume": 123573435.25, "trend": 85.944667, "fair_value": 32.649679, "relative_strength": -17.180571, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.249518, "energy": 37.731614, "activity_lines": [ 74.574, 87.366909, 93.624667, 89.831398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.95, "volume": 85404225, "typical_volume": 123416319.75, "trend": 85.576667, "fair_value": 33.022244, "relative_strength": -16.480909, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.24528, "energy": 50.185345, "activity_lines": [ 69.719333, 81.057455, 91.227524, 88.476903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 82.83, "volume": 96698698, "typical_volume": 121031352.3, "trend": 85.509333, "fair_value": 33.512692, "relative_strength": 0.723832, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.344881, "energy": 47.244755, "activity_lines": [ 72.130667, 79.286364, 90.549714, 88.299699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }