{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a73c2109-20b9-4d1b-b5e1-bce94514921c", "symbol": "5QY", "name": "Net Pacific Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.482, "architecture_energy": 54.334, "architecture_maturity": 64.235, "architecture_confidence": 80.788, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.61, "rotation_up": 14.53, "upward_expansion": 8.0, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 70.43, "downward_expansion": 86.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.012667, 0.013, 0.01341, 0.013613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.012, "trend_reference": 0.014167, "distance_from_trend": -0.152941, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.016404, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.268464, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.338976, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2, "excess_performance": -0.354835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152941, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105263, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.268464, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153822, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.37339, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177391, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 279900, "relative_activity": 2.040013, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 1.13826, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089744, "annualized_volatility": 0.414062, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.014167, "fair_value_reference": 0.016404, "structural_low": 0.012, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.37037, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.026018, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.818182, "worst_return": -0.133333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.018113, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.363636, "worst_return": -0.217391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.058824, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.116914, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.545455, "worst_return": -0.217391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"typical_volume": 150985.0, "trend": 0.015033, "fair_value": 0.016583, "relative_strength": -32.3648, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.816754, "energy": 38.501981, "activity_lines": [ 0.013333, 0.013618, 0.013771, 0.014118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.013, "volume": 4200, "typical_volume": 150195.0, "trend": 0.014833, "fair_value": 0.016532, "relative_strength": -31.95867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.46868, "energy": 56.08611, "activity_lines": [ 0.013133, 0.013473, 0.013695, 0.013987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.013, "volume": 310600, "typical_volume": 148210.0, "trend": 0.0146, "fair_value": 0.016494, "relative_strength": -32.116602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.263251, "energy": 57.284935, "activity_lines": [ 0.013, 0.013364, 0.013629, 0.013869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.013, "volume": 30000, "typical_volume": 123210.0, "trend": 0.014367, "fair_value": 0.016455, "relative_strength": -32.105093, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.12359, "energy": 51.486958, "activity_lines": [ 0.013, 0.013273, 0.013567, 0.013766 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.012, "volume": 279900, "typical_volume": 137205.0, "trend": 0.014167, "fair_value": 0.016404, "relative_strength": -37.338976, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.482299, "energy": 54.333955, "activity_lines": [ 0.012667, 0.013, 0.01341, 0.013613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }