{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a73d810f-bc24-43a5-a189-bc5a09c69eb0", "symbol": "DWNI", "name": "Deutsche Wohnen SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.987, "architecture_energy": 53.75, "architecture_maturity": 45.672, "architecture_confidence": 92.903, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.21, "rotation_up": 20.17, "upward_expansion": 9.33, "deceleration": 45.04, "rotation_down": 60.51, "downward_expansion": 85.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.369333, 18.513091, 18.79968, 19.220453 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.32, "trend_reference": 19.867323, "distance_from_trend": -0.077883, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.159328, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.134188, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.163987, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.142178, "excess_performance": -0.316425, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077883, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038992, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.134188, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063241, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.28164, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051071, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142178, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037695, "annualized_volatility": 0.274859, "from_high_reference": -0.230298, "from_low_reference": 0.017778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.867323, "fair_value_reference": 21.159328, "structural_low": 18.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.011196, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.040668, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.143116, "worst_return": -0.18035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.050156, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.002641, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.29204, "worst_return": -0.281908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.031851, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.089388, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.275615, "worst_return": -0.371332, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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136.45, "trend": 20.099444, "fair_value": 21.228825, "relative_strength": -26.663755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.331743, "energy": 34.931403, "activity_lines": [ 18.762666, 18.719277, 19.064475, 19.551817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.219999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 128.05, "trend": 20.029825, "fair_value": 21.205061, "relative_strength": -27.906115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.102233, "energy": 43.805047, "activity_lines": [ 18.590666, 18.614181, 18.95389, 19.430562 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.42, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 128.05, "trend": 19.966873, "fair_value": 21.18054, "relative_strength": -26.375646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.554495, "energy": 46.719818, "activity_lines": [ 18.482666, 18.568363, 18.876575, 19.326703 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.32, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 78.75, "trend": 19.867323, "fair_value": 21.159328, "relative_strength": -28.163987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.986647, "energy": 53.749894, "activity_lines": [ 18.369333, 18.513091, 18.79968, 19.220453 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }