{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a744278c-e95f-47ec-a052-d010dfaa3e42", "symbol": "H50E", "name": "HSBC EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.597, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.058, "architecture_energy": 60.964, "architecture_maturity": 37.049, "architecture_confidence": 81.433, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.61, "rotation_up": 57.61, "upward_expansion": 83.39, "deceleration": 58.46, "rotation_down": 25.38, "downward_expansion": 10.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.790669, 67.456183, 66.043334, 64.846387 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 68.68, "trend_reference": 63.692914, "distance_from_trend": 0.078299, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.998939, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.295875, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.128311, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.092587, "excess_performance": -0.078305, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078299, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038696, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.295875, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066161, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041283, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022537, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.092587, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.849974, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37415, "relative_activity": 0.688076, "balance": 1.849974, "dry_up": 0.692812, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023252, "annualized_volatility": 0.168074, "from_high_reference": -0.012509, "from_low_reference": 0.244674 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.692914, "fair_value_reference": 52.998939, "structural_low": 56.470001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.001153, "positive_rate": 0.512195, "directional_follow_through": 0.512195, "median_excess_return": -0.002872, "regime_survival": 0.804878, "best_return": 0.106442, "worst_return": -0.088514, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.001334, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.030497, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.116547, "worst_return": -0.060625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.061941, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.03572, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.180361, "worst_return": -0.165259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -2.938916, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.372094, "energy": 61.168501, "activity_lines": [ 67.110003, 66.763274, 65.182906, 64.210831 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.940002, "volume": 24151, "typical_volume": 58989.6, "trend": 63.496502, "fair_value": 52.824322, "relative_strength": -2.443095, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.856935, "energy": 55.211126, "activity_lines": [ 67.377336, 67.076365, 65.597049, 64.511968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.68, "volume": 37415, "typical_volume": 54376.25, "trend": 63.692914, "fair_value": 52.998939, "relative_strength": -4.128311, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.057741, "energy": 60.964353, "activity_lines": [ 67.790669, 67.456183, 66.043334, 64.846387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }