{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a747ca6b-1453-4447-8e4c-c4b71b15e5df", "symbol": "002218", "name": "SHENZHEN TOPRAYSOLAR Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.31, "architecture_energy": 43.252, "architecture_maturity": 75.183, "architecture_confidence": 64.905, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.48, "rotation_up": 26.75, "upward_expansion": 19.05, "deceleration": 66.8, "rotation_down": 42.48, "downward_expansion": 69.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.974, 3.929273, 4.330571, 4.747849 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.1, "trend_reference": 5.188667, "distance_from_trend": -0.209816, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.96336, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.034476, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.935673, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.305085, "excess_performance": -0.312485, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.209816, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008598, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.034476, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.442333, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139357, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24463, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.305085, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.316702, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 320092877, "relative_activity": 0.796456, "balance": 0.316702, "dry_up": 1.002616, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127392, "annualized_volatility": 0.607838, "from_high_reference": -0.498778, "from_low_reference": 0.253823 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.188667, "fair_value_reference": 3.96336, "structural_low": 3.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.001988, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": 0.019024, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.492612, "worst_return": -0.24, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.053507, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.06279, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.342007, "worst_return": -0.35171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.052055, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.045054, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.216028, "worst_return": -0.110406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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4.755429, 5.079677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.43, "volume": 167107661, "typical_volume": 413759940.1, "trend": 5.210667, "fair_value": 3.974635, "relative_strength": -25.408404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.860392, "energy": 90.562013, "activity_lines": [ 3.668667, 3.964182, 4.582381, 4.963097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.2, "volume": 447280133, "typical_volume": 405066614.9, "trend": 5.209, "fair_value": 3.97141, "relative_strength": -8.915674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.715357, "energy": 63.849133, "activity_lines": [ 3.816, 3.948, 4.498762, 4.897892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.98, "volume": 677311260, "typical_volume": 407294054.55, "trend": 5.196667, "fair_value": 3.966525, "relative_strength": -12.200142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.425907, "energy": 54.070758, "activity_lines": [ 3.882667, 3.917455, 4.404143, 4.818602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.1, "volume": 320092877, "typical_volume": 401896691.75, "trend": 5.188667, "fair_value": 3.96336, "relative_strength": -13.935673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.310123, "energy": 43.252327, "activity_lines": [ 3.974, 3.929273, 4.330571, 4.747849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }