{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a7489210-60bb-4501-9e4b-c35220dbb3ea", "symbol": "XASX", "name": "Xtrackers - Xtrackers MSCI UK ESG UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.222, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.254, "architecture_energy": 91.264, "architecture_maturity": 15.23, "architecture_confidence": 71.291, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.34, "rotation_up": 86.51, "upward_expansion": 98.7, "deceleration": 39.04, "rotation_down": 8.74, "downward_expansion": 20.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 518.186667, 511.055, 502.542453, 498.467398 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 527.8, "trend_reference": 495.415179, "distance_from_trend": 0.065369, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 430.513805, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.225977, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.012454, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.052613, "excess_performance": 0.001378, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065369, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023654, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.225977, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068679, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010125, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030132, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052613, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.346111, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 211899, "relative_activity": 0.988875, "balance": 3.346111, "dry_up": 1.079699, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018816, "annualized_volatility": 0.168654, "from_high_reference": -0.005652, "from_low_reference": 0.187811 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 495.415179, "fair_value_reference": 430.513805, "structural_low": 448.897502, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.004997, "positive_rate": 0.53125, "directional_follow_through": 0.53125, "median_excess_return": -0.002039, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.058777, "worst_return": -0.098359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.013952, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009948, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.078052, "worst_return": -0.040171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.02019, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.0165, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.092475, "worst_return": -0.08091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 506.85, "volume": 357156, "typical_volume": 224412.75, "trend": 491.574044, "fair_value": 427.927375, "relative_strength": -0.420858, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.630719, "energy": 71.792504, "activity_lines": [ 503.905, 499.196245, 494.262944, 493.190939 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 512.8, "volume": 80369, "typical_volume": 218826.05, "trend": 492.734959, "fair_value": 428.706013, "relative_strength": -0.444034, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.982225, "energy": 79.031684, "activity_lines": [ 507.646667, 502.370454, 496.477336, 494.560355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 519.6, "volume": 276020, "typical_volume": 214983.35, "trend": 494.105876, "fair_value": 429.580746, "relative_strength": -0.287854, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.135792, "energy": 81.926416, "activity_lines": [ 512.23, 506.243636, 499.215742, 496.293584 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 527.8, "volume": 211899, "typical_volume": 214282.8, "trend": 495.415179, "fair_value": 430.513805, "relative_strength": 1.012454, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.253613, "energy": 91.263707, "activity_lines": [ 518.186667, 511.055, 502.542453, 498.467398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }