{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a74ccfb5-ba94-41a0-b3d9-d43b0b4226e3", "symbol": "002828", "name": "Beiken Energy Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.511, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 18.433, "architecture_energy": 26.006, "architecture_maturity": 15.316, "architecture_confidence": 71.276, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.96, "rotation_up": 60.61, "upward_expansion": 43.21, "deceleration": 33.75, "rotation_down": 14.95, "downward_expansion": 15.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.184667, 11.605273, 11.177048, 11.482473 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.7, "trend_reference": 11.845, "distance_from_trend": -0.012241, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.948449, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.176063, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.430965, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.106188, "excess_performance": -0.113588, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012241, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011296, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.176063, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024337, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01431, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137481, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.106188, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.905135, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 150424537, "relative_activity": 1.77715, "balance": 0.905135, "dry_up": 1.278857, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121039, "annualized_volatility": 0.575152, "from_high_reference": -0.346369, "from_low_reference": 0.386256 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.845, "fair_value_reference": 9.948449, "structural_low": 8.44, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.039083, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.025847, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.397778, "worst_return": -0.150459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.088009, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.064993, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.3325, "worst_return": -0.292068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.034445, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.046883, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.18, "worst_return": -0.199407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"gate": "down", "direction": -13.590843, "energy": 25.930764, "activity_lines": [ 11.543333, 10.720909, 10.966905, 11.40028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.43, "volume": 136213593, "typical_volume": 97886773.5, "trend": 11.764, "fair_value": 9.901015, "relative_strength": 8.539875, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.160613, "energy": 33.736951, "activity_lines": [ 12.041333, 11.086727, 11.050333, 11.446624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.43, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 86086897.4, "trend": 11.810333, "fair_value": 9.926946, "relative_strength": 10.110669, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.632541, "energy": 37.700462, "activity_lines": [ 12.328, 11.429455, 11.145, 11.489591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.7, "volume": 150424537, "typical_volume": 84643708.65, "trend": 11.845, "fair_value": 9.948449, "relative_strength": -1.430965, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.433024, "energy": 26.005996, "activity_lines": [ 12.184667, 11.605273, 11.177048, 11.482473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }